What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and Ohio

By Eric Bradner, CNN

(CNN) — A set of May primaries will test the strength of Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party and the role the president intends to play as GOP voters pick their candidates knowing he’ll never again appear on the ballot.

In Indiana on Tuesday, Trump is intervening in seven ordinarily sleepy state Senate races, seeking to purge a GOP old guard that rejected his demands to redistrict the state’s US House map.

It’s the first of several primaries in which Trump could play a dominant role this month — with a US House race in Kentucky, where Trump is seeking to oust one of his foremost conservative challengers, Rep. Thomas Massie, and a Senate runoff in Texas, where Trump has stayed out of the race despite GOP leaders’ hopes he would back Sen. John Cornyn over Attorney General Ken Paxton, also being closely watched.

Ohio will also hold its primary on Tuesday. Here’s what to watch in Indiana and Ohio:

Trump’s revenge campaign

Indiana’s Senate Republican supermajority embarrassed the president in December, when it ignored his months of lobbying and voted down a new congressional map that would have likely allowed the party to win the state’s two Democratic-held US House seats in November’s midterms.

Now, Trump is looking for payback — endorsing primary challengers to seven of the eight Republican state senators who voted against redistricting and who are up for reelection this year.

The outcome of those typically low-profile races will have outsize ramifications for a GOP that will soon be forced to grapple with what the post-Trump political landscape will look like. These races will test whether voters are willing to ignore Trump’s wishes and give their elected officials room to go in another direction.

Indiana Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray — who has drawn Trump’s ire over redistricting but is not on the ballot himself Tuesday — told CNN’s Dana Bash that such primary contests are usually fought over “home-grown issues.”

“That’s not what this is,” Bray said. “This is really driven from outside the state of Indiana, mostly in Washington, DC, and the money’s coming from outside Indiana as well.”

These are the Indiana state Senate Republican primary races to watch:

• District 1: Sen. Dan Dernulc faces Trump-backed Trevor De Vries.
• District 11: Sen. Linda Rogers faces Trump-endorsed Brian Schmutzler.
• District 19: Sen. Travis Holdman faces Trump-endorsed Bluffton City Councilman Blake Fiechter.
• District 21: Sen. Jim Buck faces Trump-backed Tracey Powell, a Tipton County commissioner.
• District 23: Sen. Spencer Deery faces Trump-backed Paula Copenhaver, an aide to the Trump-aligned Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith.
• District 38: Sen. Greg Goode faces Vigo County Councilwoman Brenda Wilson, whom Trump endorsed.
• District 41: Sen. Greg Walker faces Trump-endorsed state Rep. Michelle Davis.

Turning Point’s test

Twenty-three days before Charlie Kirk was killed, the conservative activist took up Trump’s push for redistricting in Indiana — warning state lawmakers who were balking that Turning Point USA, the organization he co-founded, would work to oust incumbents who voted against the new map.

“It’s time for Republicans to be TOUGH,” he wrote on X.

In recent months, Turning Point USA and its political advocacy arm, Turning Point Action, have sought to see Kirk’s primary pledge through.

Turning Point has organized a series of rallies — some alongside activist Scott Presler — and boasted on social media that it was flying organizers into the state.

It’s part of a broader effort by Trump’s political allies. Groups aligned with Banks have poured millions into television advertisements targeting the incumbents. The Club for Growth has led the way in direct mail to potential voters. And Turning Point is running the ground game, seeking to turn out voters loyal to Trump.

The outcome will be an early gauge of whether Turning Point, which played an important role in Trump’s 2024 ground game, can remain enough of a force to shape outcomes in the Republican Party moving forward. The group’s challenge this year is heightened by the fact that its success in 2024 came from pushing young voters to the polls, but that demographic is often harder to turnout in non-presidential contests.

Battleground Toledo

After an Ohio redistricting commission green-lit a new US House map last fall ahead of this year’s midterms, the Toledo-based 9th District — already competitive territory represented by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur — become even more favorable to the GOP.

Several Republicans are vying to take on Kaptur. The field includes former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who lost to Kaptur by less than a percentage point in 2024, as well as state Rep. Josh Williams and former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Deputy Director Madison Sheahan.

The outcome will set the stage for what’s expected to be one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities on a difficult national congressional environment this fall.

Field set for Ohio Senate, governor races

There’s little drama in the primaries for the two races that will top Ohio’s ballots, and draw intense national attention, in November.

Two years after losing his bid for a fourth term, Democratic former US Sen. Sherrod Brown will attempt a political comeback, challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Brown faces a little-known Democratic opponent, and Husted is unopposed in the Republican primary.

Though others are on the ballot, the race to replace outgoing Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is also all but official: Democrat Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health, is expected to face Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur and 2024 presidential contender.

Indiana Republican congressman faces challenge

Two months after Rep. Jim Baird’s wife died of injuries she sustained in a car crash, the Republican faces a serious primary challenger in state Rep. Craig Haggard.

Baird, 80, first won the seat in 2018. He was endorsed by Trump in January. Haggard, meanwhile, is backed by Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, who held the 4th District seat before Baird.

This isn’t a standard moderate-vs.-conservative primary battle. Baird has closely aligned himself with the president, and Rokita called Haggard a “strong conservative fighter.”

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