Gone are the days when California had a Republican governor – or are they?

By Jeff Zeleny, CNN

(CNN) — Two decades have passed since California last elected a Republican governor, but GOP candidate Steve Hilton points to 6 million reasons why he believes it’s possible to do so again.

Those are the number of votes President Donald Trump won in California in 2024, despite losing the state to Kamala Harris by 20 points. Yet it was 1.6 million more votes than Trump earned there during his first presidential bid in 2016, a rare sign of growth in a deep-blue Democratic bastion.

One month before the California primary, a spirited free-for-all has broken out in the race for governor, with a half-dozen Democrats and two Republicans among the leading contenders vying for the top two positions that will advance to the November election. There are 61 total candidates who will be on the nonpartisan primary ballot.

If the Democratic candidates split the vote among their supporters, it’s hardly a far-fetched scenario that the Republican hopefuls – Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco – could emerge as the top two winners in the June 2 primary.

“It’s a perfect opportunity,” former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told CNN. “The mismanagement of Gavin Newsom and such a weak field gives voters a chance to actually look at somebody new and better for California.”

While Democrats concede that such an outcome is mathematically possible, they argue it’s not politically probable in the era of Trump, toward whom disdain and disapproval run deep among the state’s electorate.

But even the prospect of an all-Republican general election is enough to rattle Democratic leaders who are trying to bring order to an unwieldy contest to succeed Newsom after his eight years as governor.

“I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,” Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said. “I have deep respect for the Democrats who step forward to serve and I also know they understand the importance of electing a Democrat as our next governor, including the need to narrow the field to ensure we win in November.”

Hicks’ blunt assessment underscores the uncertainty in the race. The gubernatorial campaign in the nation’s most populous state was thrown into chaos when Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out and resigned from Congress last month amid allegations of sexual misconduct.

Democratic hopefuls Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter are among the party’s candidates who are scrambling to gain the upper hand – and fighting for the same voters – in an unusual contest that could create an opening for a head-to-head match between the Republicans.

Hilton, for his part, has won Trump’s endorsement in the race.

Bianco, a sheriff who has embraced claims of election fraud, is also among the upper tier of candidates who received double-digit support in the crowded field, according to the latest CBS/YouGov California poll.

While Republicans comprise a far smaller share of California voters, only Hilton and Bianco are seriously competing for them. Even as Trump’s endorsement has given Hilton a boost among Republicans, it could also reduce the likelihood that he and Bianco may emerge as the top two finishers in next month’s primary, if Hilton begins to outpace his rival.

But it has not closed the door to that possibility, considering the jockeying among the Democratic challengers in a race with no clear frontrunner.

A two-decade GOP drought

It was nearly 20 years – and beyond a lifetime ago in Republican politics – that Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection to a second term as California governor on November 7, 2006. His landslide victory was a highpoint for Republicans on an otherwise punishing night for the party in the final midterm election during the George W. Bush administration.

“I love doing sequels,” Schwarzenegger, the actor-turned-politician, told supporters that night in Beverly Hills. “This, without any doubt, is my favorite sequel.”

When he left office in 2011, it was the final act for Republicans after a long history of winning high office in California, which has elected 21 GOP governors since becoming a state in 1850 – more than half of the 38 governors overall.

But long gone are the days of the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, who served from 1967 to 1975, and even Pete Wilson, who served from 1991 to 1999.

It was Wilson’s harsh rhetoric on immigrants and support for Proposition 187, a measure that sought to block undocumented immigrants from receiving government services, which helped turn California away from Republicans and into the Democratic stronghold of today.

An argument for change

A wave of discontent over housing costs, homelessness, a perennial state budget crisis and the response to devastating California wildfires has fueled an argument for change after Newsom’s two terms in office. He is prohibited by term limits from running again and has not endorsed a candidate, but Republicans have seized on his record to make their case.

“We cannot keep going in this direction,” Hilton said at a debate last month, “with Democrats constantly going for their insatiable appetite for more and more taxes for their bottomless money pit.”

Bianco has also repeatedly blasted Democrats who control every statewide office in California, saying: “They’re raising your taxes, they’re spending more and more of your money because they refuse to stop the spending.”

But at every turn, the Democratic candidates have responded with even louder criticism of the Trump administration, particularly the president’s decision to federalize the National Guard in California last year as the opening salvo in a nationwide immigration crackdown.

“We need someone who’s going to fight Donald Trump,” Becerra said at a debate Tuesday, “not agree with him.”

Aside from his endorsement of Hilton, Trump has barely weighed in publicly on the race. Yet the president’s dismal approval rating among Democrats and independent voters likely complicates the successful path of any Republican candidate.

“In the current tribal environment of American politics, I don’t think it’s possible to elect a Republican statewide,” Rob Stutzman, a longtime Republican strategist in California, told CNN.

“I do think Republicans will be able to make progress in the years ahead on affordability issues – blue state governance doesn’t stand up well to scrutiny,” he added, “but the biggest topic in the governor’s race right now is which Democrat will oppose Trump and ICE raids the most.”

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