Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei. That’s not the full picture

By Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN

(CNN) — As funeral prayers took place before the coffin of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday, many top officials and three of the ayatollah’s sons were present. Among the noticeably missing, however, were some former presidents at odds with the current regime.

Their absence cast doubt on Tehran’s “unity” mantra, which has dominated rhetoric throughout Khamenei’s week-long funeral proceedings. This messaging was intended to signal to the United States and Israel that military action has not – and will not – bring down the Islamic Republic or foment dissent against the regime, experts said.

Khamenei’s funeral events, culminating Thursday with his burial in the northeastern city of Mashhad, have been crowded with millions of mourners who genuinely believe in the Islamic Republic’s cause.

But that’s not the full story; with a population of 90 million, Iran is a tale of two peoples: those who mourn, and those who don’t.

Many Iranians are angry at the spectacle, associating Khamenei with an oppressive regime that has only silenced dissent over the years. Others feel apathy, with some even treating the funeral days as an opportunity to head out of congested cities. The absence of former public figures also shows the tight grip imposed by organizers of the event, as the current regime support base feels more galvanized than ever.

The notable absence of Khamenei’s son and successor Mojtaba has however led to speculation about his whereabouts. The new leader has not made a public appearance since his appointment as supreme leader following his father’s death.

Arash Azizi, a US-based Iran expert and author of the book “What Iranians Want,” said that “the organizing committee of the funeral had the opportunity to project regime unity by including figures such as pro-reform former presidents.” Azizi added that it appears that the committee has “instead decided to go for a tight ship, only core and top officials of the regime.”

The regime has used Khamenei’s funeral to invigorate its base, according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, adding that support within the circle of leadership is likely higher than ever before.

“I don’t think it is a majority of the country, however,” Parsi said.

Two of the reformist former presidents who were absent from the funeral prayers on Sunday, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, were both previously at odds with Khamenei, Azizi noted, and were effectively ousted by him. The same is true for former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he said, a hardliner who later was at odds with the supreme leader and consequently sidelined.

Ahmadinejad attended the funeral ceremonies on Monday, however, marking a rare public appearance after years of estrangement. An image published by Iranian media showed him walking among the large crowds attending the procession.

‘Carefully choreographed’

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that “Tehran wants to project that it can lose its supreme leader without losing its continuity of governance.”

“Massive crowds and carefully choreographed ceremonies reinforce that message, but the conspicuous absence of key figures also reminds the world that the leadership still feels profoundly vulnerable and is not seeking to cast a broad umbrella,” Vaez said.

At the outset of the war, the US and Israel were heavily invested in the prospect of regime change in Iran, which experts said was unlikely to happen given Tehran’s succession plans. Every assassination is followed by a new appointment, often much more hardline than previous leaderships.

Analysts say there is now a constellation of varying sentiments in a country whose leadership for years used coercion and oppression to silence dissent.

Since the conflict with the US and Israel began earlier this year, Iran has carried out a wave of arrests using the cover of what it calls “wartime conditions,” according to a May report by Amnesty International.

“Iranian authorities have arbitrarily arrested more than 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, dissidents and members of ethnic and religious minorities,” the human rights group said.

Last month, more than 3,000 people were arrested in the country for collaborating with “the enemy,” judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir said, according to a statement aired on the semi-official Student News Network.

‘I just don’t care’

Iran said it expected up to 15 million mourners to turn up to the dayslong funeral, which included events in Tehran and Qom, as well as Iraqi Najaf and Karbala before the final burial in Mashhad in Iran, Khamenei’s birthplace. But not everyone was so keen to pay their respects.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of security repercussions, some Tehran residents told CNN they refused to join the crowds on the streets, feeling both frustration and indifference over the large-scale commemorations.

“Look, if I think deeply about it, then I get angry that they’ve shut down the city for someone who ruined lives,” one 30-year-old man told CNN. “But honestly, I’m at the point where I just don’t care.”

He said that in the end, despite Khamenei’s death, “nothing has changed,” adding that his absent successor may not be any different.

Azizi told CNN that there will inevitably be a wide range of views on the late supreme leader in a country of 90 million people.

“A vocal minority backs him fully and others are more divided,” he said. “He was Iran’s head of state for almost four decades and different aspects of his rule will be judged differently by various Iranians.”

Another Tehran resident, 35, said they had decided “to ignore this whole thing.”

“I’m going to relax, take it easy, have friends over to hang out and remain unbothered,” the resident, who owns a business in the Iranian capital, told CNN, adding that the regime was “always going to put on a show.”

A woman in her 30s who works as a part-time teacher in the city said the number of mourners claimed by the regime was highly exaggerated. “Those figures of 10 or 20 million are complete nonsense,” she assessed, citing the crowds she has seen firsthand. “But you should see how much money they’ve spent on this!”

Some Tehranis took the opportunity to treat the funeral days as a holiday, with many traveling north, especially to the Caspian Sea.

Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported increased congestion on the Chalus Road, already one of the country’s busiest, and the Tehran–North Freeway, “due to heavy traffic on north-to-south routes.”

Vaez, of the ICG, said this is a moment of mixed emotion for the Iranian people as they contemplate what lies ahead.

“For supporters of the system, this is a moment of genuine grief and defiance. For many others, it is less about mourning one man than about closing a traumatic chapter while hoping the country can finally move beyond war and isolation,” he said.

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CNN’s Aida Karimi contributed to this report.