What to know about how teams qualify for the World Cup knockout round and which squads need to do what today
By Ben Church, CNN
(CNN) — He might have been a few days late, but Cristiano Ronaldo has now joined the World Cup party. The striker reminded us all of his talents with two goals that stole yesterday’s headlines. That game was followed by the total snoozefest involving England and Ghana, which I’ve just about recovered from. If you missed it, congratulations. Do not watch the highlights.
Now, though, the tournament gets a little complicated as we start the final round of group stage matches, with SIX games taking place today. This is when we find out which teams will progress to the knockout phase of the tournament and who will be going home.
You need a PhD in advanced mathematics to fully understand all the permutations, but I’ll try to break it down in the simplest way possible.
The Main Thing: What happens now in the final group games
Probably important to confess that I don’t have a PhD in math, but I have seen plenty of soccer tournaments over the years, so I get how this works.
Starting from today, nations will start playing their final group stage matches. It means that both games in the respective groups will kick off at the same time.
This allows all the different permutations to be played out in real time – a single goal can change the entire picture, so things get very dramatic, very quickly.
A reminder of what teams need to do to qualify for the knockout rounds.
The group winner and runner-up automatically qualify for the Round of 32. These places are determined first by the number of points amassed. If two teams are level on points, then their head-to-head records will be used to separate them. If that still can’t separate them, then it goes to goal difference. If that still doesn’t separate them, then we get into the weeds of goals scored and Fair Play rules, but these are very rarely needed.
A quirk of this year’s tournament is that there are a record 48 teams competing. This means that along with 24 teams that qualify automatically for the next phase, there will be space for eight more teams that finished third in their groups.
Basically, the 12 teams that finish third in their respective groups will be placed in their own mini ranking, with their position determined by how many points they won in their matches. The eight teams with the best record will join the knockout bracket.
It means only 16 teams will be eliminated after the group stages. Haiti, Tunisia, Panama, Jordan and Turkey already have their exits confirmed, so only 11 more teams will soon join them calling taxis on their way to the airport.
The new rules have caused some critics to complain about the lack of peril in the group stage compared to previous tournaments, with so many teams progressing into the knockouts this summer.
But trust me, this week will be fun, and I’ll attempt to explain all the different potential outcomes for all the different teams in the newsletter this week.
Switzerland vs. Canada (Group B)
When? 3 p.m. ET
Where? BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, USA
As it stands, Canada and Switzerland both sit level on four points at the top of the group. It means whoever wins this match will be the group winner. Due to superior goal difference, a tie in this game would also mean the co-host finishes top.
Given its brilliant attacking performance in its second match of the tournament, Canada will be feeling confident of getting another win under its belt.
Switzerland, meanwhile, would still finish as runner-up if it loses to Canada and Qatar fails to beat Bosnia in the other Group B game.
Ultimately, though, both teams have all but booked a place in the knockouts, whatever the results. Both are already on four points, which means they would likely qualify as one of the eight best third-place finishers regardless.
In short, expect to see both teams in the Round of 32.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar (Group B)
When? 3 p.m. ET
Where? Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, Washington, USA
It’s less clear for the other two teams in Group B. I’ll try to keep this simple.
Whichever team loses this match will be out of the competition. If this game ends in a draw, Qatar is out of the competition.
Should Bosnia win, it could finish second in the group but would have to hope Switzerland is beaten heavily by Canada.
A draw or a win for Bosnia, though, could still see it qualify as one of the best third-place finishers.
Given Qatar’s shocking performance against Canada last time out, the Zmajevi will feel confident of getting the all-important victory.
Quote of the Day
Two simple words that showed just how much Cristiano Ronaldo still cares about being the best.
The striker brushed off criticism for his performance in Portugal’s first World Cup match to star in a brilliant 5-0 win over Uzbekistan yesterday.
The 41-year-old scored twice on a night where he and his teammates finally showed up. As he walked off the pitch, Ronaldo shouted “I’m back” twice into the camera. It was a message not only to the viewers, but maybe his rivals as well.
Who is the man standing still for entire World Cup matches?
While thousands of DR Congo fans sing, dance and celebrate, Michel Kuka Mboladinga stands still. Known as “Lumumba Vea,” the supporter spends entire matches motionless with one hand raised, a tribute to one of Congo’s most important historical figures.
The World Cup in numbers: 6
Ronaldo fans will love to hear this one as well in a tournament seemingly dominated by his rival Lionel Messi so far.
After his brace yesterday, the Portuguese superstar became the first player to score a goal in six editions of the World Cup, a record stretching back to his debut in 2006.
Messi (who turns 39 today) has also played in six World Cups but failed to score in the 2010 edition. Given the longevity required to keep playing at an elite level, it’s a record that won’t be beaten for a long time.
Scotland vs. Brazil (Group C)
When? 6 p.m. ET
Where? Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium), Miami Gardens, Florida, USA
Now this is a game you won’t want to miss. Scotland and Brazil both share a long, intertwined history of soccer and Hard Rock Stadium will be bouncing with excitement later this afternoon.
Scotland, roared on by the Tartan Army, will be looking to spring a surprise on the five-time world champion, knowing a win would see it straight through to the knockout stage.
Brazil, meanwhile, is pretty much through already. It just needs to better Morocco’s result against Haiti and it will finish as the group winner.
Scotland, already on three points, could make the knockouts even if it loses to Brazil, as long as it’s not a total thrashing.
Morocco vs. Haiti (Group C)
When? 6 p.m. ET
Where? Atlanta Stadium (Mercedes-Benz Stadium), Atlanta, Georgia, USA
This one is a little easier to understand. After losing both its opening two games, Haiti is already out – it’s now just playing for pride.
Morocco, meanwhile, will finish runner-up should Brazil beat Scotland. It can also finish top of the group if it betters Brazil’s result – but it would need to score loads of goals against Haiti.
The African team is one of those nations that is all but qualified for the knockouts anyway, having already picked up four points. The Atlas Lions have also been looking really impressive during spells of their previous matches but will look to maintain their performance for a full 90 minutes in the final group clash.
France manager Didier Deschamps to leave World Cup after mother’s death
Now for some sobering news out of North America. France manager Didier Deschamps will temporarily leave the tournament after learning yesterday that his mother had passed away.
The French soccer federation said that Deschamps would miss the nation’s final group match against Norway on Friday to attend the funeral. It’s not yet clear when he’ll return to the squad.
Deschamps, 57, previously announced he would be stepping down as France manager at the end of this tournament. He has already guided Les Bleus to World Cup glory in 2018 and made the final in 2022.
France has already qualified for the knockout stages, with a final group game against Norway deciding who finishes top of Group I.
Czech Republic vs. Mexico (Group A)
When? 9 p.m. ET
Where? Mexico City Stadium (Estadio Azteca), Mexico City, Mexico
The good news for co-host Mexico is that, whatever happens in this match, the fans know their team will finish as Group A champion, having won both its first two games.
It means they might rest some players ahead of the Round of 32, which might give Czech Republic a better chance of picking up a much-needed result.
A win would give the Repre a strong chance of progressing as either the runner-up or as one of the best third-place finishers. Set pieces have been key for the team so far, so it will look to exploit that against Mexico.
South Korea vs. South Africa (Group A)
When? 9 p.m. ET
Where? Monterrey Stadium (Estadio BBVA), Guadalupe, Mexico
It’s nice and simple for South Korea. A win or a draw against South Africa will mean it finishes as the group runner-up.
The Taegeuk Warriors will feel confidence in doing so against a South Africa side which has been poor throughout this tournament so far. Bafana Bafana was well-beaten by Mexico but then somehow snatched a point against Czech Republic with a late equalizing penalty.
It means there is still a chance of automatic progression, but it needs to beat South Korea as a bare minimum. It will finish runner-up if it does so and the Czech Republic doesn’t beat Mexico.
A win would also likely see it go through as one of the best third-place finishers should the Czechs win.
The Final Whistle: A repeat of the Club World Cup trophy ceremony?
Hopefully, you’re not too confused by all of that – things will be more clear when the games start kicking off. We’ll leave you today with a small story about Donald Trump.
The US president has stayed away from the games so far this summer given the plethora of world matters that merit his attention but that looks to be changing, and it appears he has big plans for the World Cup final on July 19.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino appeared to confirm that both he and Trump will hand over the trophy to the eventual champion on the pitch at MetLife Stadium.
“We will be together with the president enjoying the final and handing the trophy to the winner, of course, together,” Infantino told FOX & Friends.
The plans appear to be similar to what happened at the Club World Cup last summer, where both men handed Chelsea the trophy. Much to the confusion of some of the players during that ceremony, Trump then remained on center stage as Chelsea captain Reece James lifted the trophy aloft.
It led to some brilliant side-eyes from Chelsea star Cole Palmer. “I was a bit confused,” Palmer said at the time. He certainly looked it.
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