Democrats eye ambitious Senate map that was once unthinkable as anti-Trump backlash grows

By Sarah Ferris, CNN

(CNN) — For weeks, top Democrats in Washington have watched with cautious restraint as Republicans dumped millions into red states like Kansas and South Carolina to defend an increasingly shaky Senate map.

But Democrats increasingly believe they have a real chance to win seats deep in Trump territory as Republicans face their worst midterm environment in decades and the Senate map abruptly expands.

Democrats are now adding Kansas to a growing list of unlikely targets as they also try to flip Texas, Alaska and Iowa – all four states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. With just 22 days to go, Senate Democrats’ top super PAC surprised some in its own party by investing $5 million in Kansas – a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

“The gap is closing in Kansas,” Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

The investment marks a stark shift for Democratic campaign officials in Washington, who – until now – have insisted they are clear-eyed about their own realities in this midterm election. With Democrats badly outspent by the GOP, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his campaign arm have been careful to keep their focus strictly on the core battleground seats that are most likely to flip the Senate, according to nearly a dozen people familiar with internal discussions.

But inside the party, there’s a fierce debate about how far to expand the map when Democrats are already battling for so many expensive toss-up races, with anxiety about how much to spread their limited cash without costing winnable seats.

Privately, Senate Democrats had been planning to keep their limited pool of cash in what they see as must-win races in North Carolina and Georgia — even as the GOP has sharply reduced its spending in both states — as well as holding Michigan and flipping seats in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

But now, voters’ anti-Trump backlash is driving Democrats to gamble in even redder seats. In recent days, there’s a growing sense that their party has a real shot in Kansas, in particular, where Republicans are spending almost $10 million on air to defend incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.

It’s a strategy that would have been once unthinkable for Democrats, who just weeks ago were dismissing the idea that they would seriously spend in Texas – let alone Kansas.

Recent public polling showed a tied race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that Trump won by 16 points two years ago. Democrats’ own internal polling in Kansas, too, showed Hamilton in a true position to compete.

“Democrats expanded the map deep into GOP territory and created new opportunities to flip seats – putting us in the strongest position yet to win the Senate majority,” Schumer’s campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, spokesperson Maeve Coyle said. “Between now and Election Day, we will keep all options on the table and pursue every strategic path to victory as resources allow.”

In Kansas, Methodist megachurch pastor Hamilton has been careful to distance himself from Washington Democrats. Self-described as an “independent-minded Democrat,” Hamilton has previously told CNN he won’t support Schumer for leader. And recently, when one sitting Democratic senator offered to campaign for Hamilton, the candidate’s team turned the senator down, according to one person familiar with the discussions.

Inside the cash-strapped Democratic party, there’s an increasingly fierce debate about how much to expand the Senate map — and how far to push into Trump country as the environment worsens for Republicans. With Kansas now on the map, and optimism abounds, Democrats are privately talking seriously about having a real shot of defeating Republicans in states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska. Sen. Bernie Sanders is spending some of his own money in Florida.

But there’s also plenty of fear that Democrats’ decision to put money in a red state like Kansas could divert resources from a crucial battleground state like Michigan or Ohio. And among the most anxious Democrats, some are still privately pressing the party to put more money into New Hampshire or even Minnesota, two traditionally blue seats with well-known GOP candidates backed by heavy GOP spending. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper has been clear that the national party can’t ignore his race, either.

“People are getting really excited about these expansion states. We have not won Iowa, Ohio, Texas or Alaska yet,” one Democratic operative who works on Senate races said in recent days.

Some in the party, for instance, are privately raising alarms about Minnesota, with progressives like Sanders trying to direct resources there in the final days.

“I worry there aren’t enough resources being invested in Minnesota …. People take it for granted as a blue state,” one Democratic operative closely tracking the Senate race there said. “You’re trying to put Maine and Texas on the map, but you also gotta play defense too.”

Republicans, too, are sensing an opportunity in the state. They feel good about Republican Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL sideline reporter, going up against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Top Senate Republicans have told donors that last-minute contributions could go far in Minnesota, according to two people familiar with the conversation – and that they believe the race winnable with more money.

While Democratic officials in Minnesota aren’t publicly sounding the alarm about holding their open Senate seat, party leaders believe they have something of a built-in insurance policy: Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running for governor and will be on the top of the ticket and could help lift other Democrats over the finish line. Still, some in the party point out that Kamala Harris only won the state by 4 points two years ago and it shouldn’t be ignored this fall.

The complicating factor for Democrats is money. While Democratic candidates and groups have raised record sums, Senate Republicans have benefited from even more massive spending from GOP super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Top Democrats have been clear that they simply don’t have enough money to go after every potentially competitive seat.

In the final weeks, top Senate Democrats’ mindset had been to “stay the course” in their current battlefield rather than expanding it at the last minute into places like South Carolina, according to one person granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

“This is not the time that we need to do anything differently,” that person said, noting that top Democrats are stressing caution in the final weeks: “There’s going to be some turbulence between now and Election Day.”

Even so, Senate Democrats are not dismissing the chances outright of an upset in these states. Schumer’s campaign arm has encouraged senators to play up the expanding map, including tightening races like Mississippi or South Carolina, and has told senators directly, “We don’t take options off the table,” according to one person familiar with the discussions. And Schumer has personally told donors that Mississippi’s Senate race deserves attention, another person familiar with the discussions told CNN.

But campaign officials have also been clear that they can’t take their attention off the other toss-up races that they need to flip control of the Senate, or even traditionally blue seats that have seen unusual amounts of spending.

“Everything feels really good right now. The question is, can that hold?” another Democratic operative working on congressional races said.

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CNN’s David Wright, Manu Raju and Jeff Zeleny contributed