Republicans have lost ground with Latino voters after Trump’s 2024 gains

By Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — A year after President Donald Trump’s re-election, Republicans are already seeing their gains among Latino voters erode, recent election results and polling suggest. Here’s what’s changed and what it could mean for next year’s midterm elections.

Economic angst drove Latino voters toward the GOP in 2024

Trump made considerable inroads with Latino voters in 2024, losing this group by just 5 points nationally after losing by 38 and 33 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively, according to CNN’s 2024 exit poll. Analyses by Catalist and the Pew Research Center also found a close race among Latinos last year.

Trump’s relatively strong performance came amid a wave of economic discontent. CNN’s exit poll found that Latino voters were more likely than any other racial or ethnic group to select the economy as their top issue and to describe inflation as a severe or moderate hardship. They were the least likely to say their financial situation had improved since 2020.

Latinos overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s second term so far

Many Latinos entered Trump’s second term feeling optimistic. Over half approved of his handling of the presidential transition in a December 2024 CNN poll, a similar proportion described themselves as enthusiastic or optimistic about his second term, and 72% expressed at least some confidence in his ability to handle the economy.

But in CNN’s latest poll, just 20% of Latinos approved of his job performance, down from 41% in February. This 21-point drop far outpaces the 4- and 9-point drops among Black and White Americans and the 10-point drop in his approval rating overall. Several other polls have also found Trump’s approval rating among Latinos declining from the start of his second term.

This drop in approval comes as Latinos continue to be focused on the economy: In the late October poll, 54% say the economy and cost of living is the nation’s top issue (compared to 47% for Americans overall). Latinos are more likely than Americans overall to rate economic conditions as somewhat or very poor (81%, compared to 72% of all Americans) and to say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions (75%, compared to 61% of all Americans).

Latinos are also likelier than the general population to say that immigration is extremely or very important to them (77% said so in CNN’s late summer poll, compared to 65% of Americans overall). From July to October, the proportion of Latinos who say that Trump has gone too far on deportations has gone up from 66% to 79%.

Since March, the Republican Party’s favorability rating among Latinos has dropped from 26% to 16%, while the Democratic Party’s rating has mostly held steady, going from 37% to 34%. And by late summer, Latinos gave Democrats a 10-point advantage on economic issues, up from a near-even split in May.

In a statement, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said that Trump “received historic support from Latino voters in the 2024 election” and was beginning to fulfill his promises on the economy and immigration.

“President Trump has consistently outperformed the mainstream media’s so-called polling, and he will continue doing so by delivering for everyday Americans,” Jackson said.

Democrats won Latinos in this month’s elections by wide margins

In the first opportunity for millions of Americans to weigh in on Trump’s second term, Latinos supported Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey respectively, by at least a 2-to-1 margin, according to CNN’s exit poll. Latinos also voted for a Democratic-supported redistricting ballot measure in California 71% to 29%.

There have been questions about Democrats’ ability to win back Latino voters given their own popularity issues. (CNN’s most recent polling found that more Latinos view the party unfavorably than favorably.) The Latinos who voted in the November 2025 contests generally held favorable views of the Democratic Party – 56% in California and Virginia and 67% in New Jersey said they viewed the party favorably.

Democrats were also better able than Republicans to win over Latino voters who viewed their respective parties negatively. Voters in California who viewed both parties negatively supported the Democratic-backed ballot measure 78% to 21%. In Virginia and New Jersey, just 2% of Latino voters who held a negative view of the Republican Party supported Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican gubernatorial candidates, while over a third who held a negative view of the Democratic Party across the two contests cast votes for the Democratic candidates.

Democrats’ strong performance among Latinos on November 4 was not solely the result of more Democratic-leaning Latino voters turning out. Mirroring the Latino disillusionment with Trump’s presidency, Latino Trump voters also appear to have defected from Trump at higher rates than the overall electorate.

Among Latino voters who turned out in the November 2025 elections and said they had supported Trump last year, 24% in California voted for the Democratic-supported ballot measure and 18% in New Jersey supported Sherrill. The defection rates were considerably lower among all Trump voters who turned out in 2025: 12% in California supported the ballot measure and 7% in New Jersey voted for Sherrill.

What this year’s results could mean for 2026

While the 2025 contests represent a relatively narrow and Democratic-leaning playing field, early polling on the 2026 midterms also shows Democrats gaining ground. CNN’s October poll found that Latino registered voters say, 64% to 19%, that they’d prefer a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one. And 60% say there’s no chance they’d consider supporting a Republican candidate, while just 19% say they’ve ruled out backing a Democrat.

An October Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found a narrower but still substantial lead for Democrats among Latino voters – in that poll, 52% said they’d prefer a Democratic congressional candidate and 35% a Republican one.

CNN’s latest polling suggests that Democrats are currently holding onto more Latino voters who chose Democrat Kamala Harris last year than Republicans are holding onto Latino Trump voters. Among non-Latino voters, Democrats and Republicans are holding onto similar shares of their party’s voters.

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CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this report.