Trump’s Asia trip to test his dealmaking abilities with old rivals and new friends
By Betsy Klein, CNN
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (CNN) — US President Donald Trump will lean on the power of in-person diplomacy on the first Asia trip of his second term as he meets with old rivals, new friends and, potentially, adversaries, while looking to cut deals that could have sweeping economic and national security implications.
But Trump’s love of tariffs — just like his unpredictable approach to relationships abroad — has generated uncertainty among once-solid US allies in the region, setting up a major test of whether the “Art of the Deal” author can deliver.
Trump arrived in Malaysia late Saturday (Sunday morning local time) for a six-day, three-country tour after having reimagined the role of the US in the world — a role he’s trying to defend against the rising influence of China, in particular, around the globe.
The “America First” president touts what he says are Trump-brokered ends to eight wars, including a fragile ceasefire for the Israel-Hamas conflict, and uses his tariff policy as leverage. And he’s said that the conflict whose resolution has been most elusive — Russia’s war in Ukraine — will be on the agenda during the highest-stakes meeting of the trip, with Xi Jinping, the leader of China, with which the US is embroiled in a simmering trade war.
In Kuala Lumpur, Trump will sign a peace agreement between Cambodia and Thailand, the president said Saturday. The Southeast Asian neighbors agreed to a ceasefire in July to end escalating violence on their disputed border, after Trump warned their respective leaders he would not make trade deals with them if the deadly conflict continued.
“I am on my way to Malaysia, where I will sign the great Peace Deal, which I proudly brokered between Cambodia and Thailand,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
Trump will later join key leaders at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, who will seek to deepen partnerships with the US. He will meet with Japan’s new, conservative prime minister in Tokyo. Trade and security are on the agenda as he meets with the South Korean president.
But all eyes are on the expected meeting with Xi in South Korea, which has already been colored by questions of whether it will even happen. The prospect of a potential meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un — with whom he shared an infamous 2019 handshake in the Korean Peninsula’s demilitarized zone — also looms over the trip.
Trump’s engagements with his counterparts will be closely watched for any progress toward repairing economic ties, expanding trade and making good on investment promises — and whether he can tap into the influence of regional leaders to help expand security cooperation.
“All of these leaders and countries (are) going to have been subject to US reciprocal tariffs, pressure to spend more on defense — a bit of bullying by the United States,” said Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS.
“But in spite of this, the reception, I think, will be positive. Everybody still wants to cut a deal with the US president,” Cha noted, pointing to those nations’ desires for tariff relief.
And, as with any presidential trip abroad, the stagecraft will be meticulously managed as each of Trump’s hosts tries to flatter the American president with pomp and circumstance.
A critical Xi meeting
Trump and Xi met face-to-face five times during the American president’s first term, including a Mar-a-Lago welcome for Xi and a Trump trip to Beijing.
But the circumstances of their most recent in-person meeting, in June 2019 on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Japan, underscore the complicated relationship that persists six years later, after the Covid-19 pandemic and the administration of President Joe Biden.
At the time, the US and China were seeking a trade deal amid major tariff escalations by both countries. Though Trump and Xi described that June meeting positively, both countries continued to lash out with further tariff threats and had on-and-off negotiations.
Trump has long heralded Xi’s leadership and touted a warm relationship with his counterpart, whom he’s described both as a “friend” and “extremely hard to make a deal with.”
And Beijing is seeking some predictability from Trump, who notoriously conducts a capricious brand of diplomacy.
This time, the lead-up to their expected meeting has had plenty of twists and turns, with trade tensions reigniting recently after Beijing announced plans to restrict exports of rare earth minerals. Trump then threatened to impose tariffs starting at 130% on Chinese exports by November 1, up from the current 30% minimum rate. Trump also said he’s prepared to impose export controls on what he referred to as “any and all critical software” to China. Beijing has signaled it would retaliate against all these actions. China has also paused purchases of American soybeans, causing a strain on US farmers.
Earlier this month, Trump threatened to call off the meeting, writing on Truth Social: “I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.”
But an optimistic Trump on Wednesday indicated he’s heading into talks in dealmaking mode.
“I think we’ll make a deal. I think we’re going to make a deal on — the rare earth is the least of it. … I think we’re going to make a deal on soybeans and the farmers. I think we’re going to make a deal on maybe even nuclear,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
Top US and Chinese officials’ trade talks in Malaysia this weekend will set the stage for the president’s talks with Xi. But speaking to Fox Business before the trip, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to rule out further escalatory measures if a pause or relief on Beijing’s rare earths regime can’t be negotiated.
Ambassador Nicholas Burns, who served in the top US diplomatic post in Beijing during the Biden administration, predicted that Trump and Xi could reach a nontraditional deal during their talks. He cast such a negotiation as “a series of commitments without binding language,” pointing to potential areas of agreement on TikTok, fentanyl and soybean exports.
“My best sense is that we’re not going to see a finished trade deal next week. Too little time,” Burns said in a conversation previewing the trip with the Atlantic Council. “The best we can expect,” he said, is the two leaders agreeing on “certain principles” that their aides can follow up on.
And Dr. Philip Luck, director of the CSIS economics program, tempered expectations for some of the more intractable disagreements between Washington and Beijing, suggesting that Trump and Xi will reach agreements on “deescalations, rather than solving the underlying systemic issues.”
But Trump is also hoping to lean on his meeting with Xi to massage another key relationship recently on the rocks.
“I think he can have a big influence on Putin. … Look, he’s a respected man. He’s a very strong leader of a very big country,” Trump said in previewing talks about how to end the war in Ukraine.
China has deep economic ties to Russia, and the countries’ leaders have shown solidarity in recent months, which raises a key test for Trump and the American influence he’s trying to project around the world.
A new Japanese prime minister
Trump will also have the opportunity to meet with staunch conservative Sanae Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister earlier this month.
Like the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with whom Trump developed a close relationship during his first term, she supports revising Japan’s pacifist constitution and has visited a controversial war shrine that includes the names of those convicted of war crimes during World War II — both issues that spark anger in neighboring China and South Korea. She also opposes same-sex marriage and a growing movement to allow Japanese married couples to use separate surnames.
Trump praised her as a “highly respected person of great wisdom and strength” in a Truth Social post after her election. But the leaders’ interactions — and whether they can cultivate the same warm ties Trump enjoyed with Abe — will be closely watched.
But for Trump, it’s not just friendship that matters — it’s also economic deals. He’s likely to highlight Japan’s commitment to invest $550 billion in the US, with Takaichi’s government working to finalize an initial package of purchases, according to Dr. Kristi Govella, Japan chair at CSIS.
Trump, who made multiple trips to Japan during his first term, is also expected to be greeted by the country’s emperor, visit with US troops, meet Japanese business leaders and, according to Govella, visit with Abe’s widow, who spent time with Trump at Mar-a-Lago last year.
Sleepless in South Korea
Trump will also meet a new leader in South Korea, where trade and security are high priorities for talks with President Lee Jae Myung, who assumed office in June after a tumultuous political moment for his country as his predecessor declared martial law.
Since then, South Korea and the US have unveiled a new trade deal, which called for 15% tariffs on goods from the country and a massive $350 billion investment in the US. The trade agreement has not gone into effect, and Trump’s tariffs have placed significant strain on the South Korean economy.
The US-South Korean relationship also faced a major test in September when nearly 500 people, mostly South Korean nationals, were arrested and detained during an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant in the US state of Georgia, sparking outrage back home. Lee openly expressed concern about the future of South Korean investment in the US, saying that confusion over the visa situation for South Koreans would lead local companies to question “whether they should go at all.”
But Lee has sounded optimistic ahead of his meeting with the US president.
“I believe that is taking some time. And I also believe in the rationality of the United States. And so I believe that we will be able to reach a rational agreement,” he told CNN’s Will Ripley.
“I believe that in the end, we will be able to reach a rational result that is acceptable. Because we are an alliance — and we both have common sense and rationality,” he added.
Regional tensions are also at the forefront this week, with Lee eying Trump’s “peacemaker” abilities. The president’s trip, which coincides with the APEC economic summit, comes just days after South Korea’s northern neighbor offered its latest provocation, test-firing ballistic missiles — North Korea’s first military show of force since Lee took office.
“I also believe that President Trump wants to achieve world peace. That’s why I have asked him to take on the role of peacemaker,” Lee told CNN, saying he’d welcome the possibility of a Trump-Kim meeting.
Prospects of a Kim Jong Un meeting
Trump administration officials have privately discussed setting up a meeting between the US president and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during this trip, though many are skeptical it will ultimately happen, sources familiar with the matter told CNN earlier this month.
Trump has publicly and privately expressed a desire to meet his North Korean counterpart, and officials have left the door open to a meeting during the trip, even if there hasn’t been any of the communications between Washington and Pyongyang that Trump at times had during his first term.
“They have a lot of nuclear weapons, but not a lot of telephone service. So I’m open to it. I had a great relationship with him, and he probably knows I’m coming, right? But if you want to put out the word, I’m open to it,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One when asked whether he’d see Kim.
In June 2019, Trump became the first sitting US president to step into North Korea, a brief but historic moment that came together quickly after the president tweeted an invitation. The leaders met for nearly an hour at the demilitarized zone — but the meeting did not yield substantial progress, and North Korea has subsequently bolstered its nuclear weapons program.
Regional leaders
Trump is expected to meet with other key counterparts in Kuala Lumpur, including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and leaders from the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries where the US is seeking to build influence.
But leaders in each nation have grappled with instability during the US president’s second term — as well as impacts from the administration’s cuts to foreign aid.
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CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Jessie Yeung, Hanako Montgomery, Will Ripley, Alayna Treene, Kylie Atwood and John Liu contributed to this report.
