1982 El Niño event could help Bay Area prepare for forecasted super El Niño

By Molly McCrea

With the Bay Area facing the possibility of a destructive super El Niño this winter, lessons from a previous El Niño may help residents prepare for what might be coming.  

The skies may be sunny and blue in San Francisco’s Mission District, but resident Sam Picazo says that he’s ready for rain.

“I’m prepared now,” he exclaimed.

Picazo lives with his wife Francisca in an apartment complex that he has managed for decades. His neighborhood at 17th and Folsom streets sits at a low point in the city and is a notorious hot spot for floods.

Picazo’s son-in-law Ricardo Ramirez remembers how during one big flood, his father-in-law jumped on a door and floated down the street.

“He put a door down and he started swimming on top of it,” Ramirez recalled. “It looked like the ocean out here, pretty crazy, a lot of mud out here.”

The extended family knows when a big storm comes, there’s trouble and a lot of cleanups. In a few months, Picazo may have to dust off his rain galoshes, and he won’t be alone.

This winter, officials predict a historic El Niño event that may equal or surpass what happened throughout the Bay Area in 1982, when an El Niño-fueled storm system pummeled 10 counties around the region. 

In January 1982, 32 hours of continuous heavy rain fell, resulting in more than 25 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, up to 16 inches in Marin County, and about nine inches in Pacifica. The torrential storm triggered more than 18,000 destructive landslides, as well as debris flows, and severe flash flooding.

More than 30 people, including five children, died from effects of the storms.  

According to a USGS report, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, as well as roads, bridges, and utilities. Two massive mudslides blocked the Waldo Grade on Highway 1 in Marin County, which partially closed the main artery to and from the Golden Gate Bridge for two weeks. Commuters then flooded onto ferries to get to work.

This winter, while the predictions are no guarantees, all the climate models tilt the odds toward a wet, even an extremely wet winter.

In 1982, the Bay Area was caught off guard. Picazo said he now knows what to do and has already taken steps. Inside his ground-level rumpus room and garage, he has elevated all of his electronics. Outside in the backyard, he has elevated the roost for his chickens to keep them safe in case of a flood.    

“The odds of a wet winter are very high,” said climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain. “I would eat my hat at this point if a significant portion of California doesn’t end up significantly wetter than average this winter.”

Since there is an elevated possibility of severe flooding this winter, Swain is advising those who are near, or even in some cases outside of known flood zones to consider purchasing federally subsidized flood insurance. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), provides insurance to anyone who lives or works in NFIP Communities – cities, counties, and other municipalities that adopt regulations to reduce future flood damage and guide new construction away from high-risk areas.

Homes and businesses in high-risk flood zones with mortgages from government-backed lenders are required to have flood insurance. Unless Congress passes an extension or reauthorization, the NFIP will expire on December 11, 2026, and no new policies will be sold. Acting policies will remain fully valid until their individual expiration dates.

Swain thinks more people can benefit from such insurance. There are also some private plans that offer flood insurance.

“Stats show that only about 2% of Californians have flood insurance,” Swain said. “Now, a lot of people don’t know this, but it’s not part of your standard homeowners’ insurance.” 

Rental or commercial insurance also typically does not offer flood damage coverage. 

There’s a mandatory 30-day waiting period before FEMA flood policies become active, with strict coverage caps that likely won’t help homeowners rebuild in California. But it may provide some protection and cushion against flood losses.

FEMA statistics show how 25% of all flood claims come from areas that the agency mapped as low or moderate flood risk.

“One is to know your risk. So, look at the FEMA maps but don’t stop there,” said environmental scientist Dr. Anna Serra-Llobet, noting how FEMA flood maps need regular updating, but each update takes significant time and a substantial amount of money.

“We have to think about these maps as a snapshot in time,” Serra-Llobet said. “But the landscape is dynamic and constantly changing.”

To reduce risk, Serra-Llobet advised Californians to look at topographic maps and understand where storm water typically flows and pools in your yard, business or neighborhood. Recent arrivals to the area can call public works or talk to neighbors about past floods or water movements.

“Then the second point is to protect our property. To try to make sure all the drainage is clear,” Serra-Llobet said.

That includes clearing drains and gutters, sealing entry points, and elevating critical utilities. Free sandbags are provided by local California cities and counties. Following California’s emergency proclamation for the upcoming El Nino winter, the state has pre-positioned millions of sandbags across multiple regional warehouses.

Other steps to take before this year’s El Niño are: come up with an emergency plan that includes at least three days of essential supplies, prepare a to-go kit that has copies of all important documents, and sign up county emergency alerts.

“Think about a flash flood like a wildfire coming,” Serra-Llobet advised. “So, you really don’t have time. You have to have it all ready.”