Netanyahu is the ultimate survivor. But can he survive this time?

By Tal Shalev, CNN

Jerusalem (CNN) — In a political career that has spanned more than three decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has been written off too many times to count, only to prove the obituaries were penned prematurely. Israel’s election results this week appear to give the prime minister’s opponents a chance to end his run, but in the country’s ruthless political system, it’s no guarantee.

By Wednesday night, most votes had been counted. But there is no clear winner for Israel’s top post, setting up weeks — possibly months — in which Netanyahu’s political survival remains on the line.

With the vote counting nearing its conclusion, Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest party in the 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset, with an estimated 26 seats. But his right-wing bloc has lost its majority, set to win only 53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.

Netanyahu hasn’t won. But he hasn’t lost, either — at least not yet. Now, he has to stop his rivals from building their own government, and he may survive again.

The Arab parties

On paper, the opposition holds roughly 67 seats, but that arithmetic is fractured by ideological, national and personal rivalries. Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, won 21 seats, but the Jewish opposition parties total only 48, well short of victory. To reach 61, they would need the support of two Arab parties, Raam and the Joint List, which are projected to win a record 19 seats between them. Analysts say that record turnout by Arabs or Palestinian citizens of Israel was in part a backlash to four years of a far-right national security minister under whom crime in the Arab community soared.

This is where the math gets complicated. Raam is an Islamist party that draws heavily from Israel’s Bedouin community. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, became the first Arab politician to join an Israeli government following the country’s 2021 election. The Joint List, projected to be the bigger Arab party, combines several smaller parties: the Communist Hadash, secularist Taal and nationalist Balad factions.

On Wednesday, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, called on his partners to count the Arab parties as part of the bloc, rejecting what he called Netanyahu’s “racist division between Jewish and Arab votes.” But two of Eisenkot’s right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have opposed any government that depends on the Arab parties. (They have not issued a statement on the issue since polls closed.)

The Joint List said Wednesday that it was ready for political cooperation and willing to do “do everything in its power to bring Netanyahu’s rule to an end.”

What will Netanyahu do?

A source close to Netanyahu said his main post-election goal is to delegitimize and therefore prevent the Jewish-Arab political cooperation that could send him home.

“He is very concerned about a minority government,” the source said. Netanyahu even plans to pressure individual opposition lawmakers not to cooperate with the Arab parties. After campaigning against them throughout the election, Likud issued a statement Wednesday accusing the Arab parties of “stealing the election” through bribery, threats, violence and forgery, echoing election fraud claims from his closest ally, US President Donald Trump. The Central Elections Committee said Wednesday it was examining the complaint, but the committee had already dismissed thousands of complaints from the different parties on election day.

Netanyahu plans to “neutralize this possibility by all means,” the source told CNN, “including launching an attack on Iran or enlisting President Trump to intervene in Israeli politics on his behalf.”

The opposition fears that Netanyahu could use a security crisis to stall or block a new government. Before the election, Netanyahu had pressed Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but Washington held off, partly because Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned it could disrupt the vote. An Israeli security source told CNN the operational plans are ready and awaiting Trump’s approval, possibly after the US midterms.

“There is no way to know what Netanyahu will do,” an opposition source told CNN. “We are aware that he may try to push for another escalation.” Another source said that Netanyahu “will do everything he can not to leave the prime minister’s office, including domestic and external chaos.”

Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, called on Israel’s security chiefs Tuesday night to remember that “Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate and without public confidence.” Speaking to supporters shortly after exit polls were published, Eisenkot declared that the public “has chosen change.”

In his first reaction to the updated results since Tuesday night’s speech, Eisenkot said he remains committed to “bringing change to Israel.”

What comes next

The numbers can still change. By Wednesday evening, the Central Elections Committee is expected to finish counting most ballots. Attention now turns to double-envelope ballots from home by soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and staff, diplomats abroad and voters with disabilities. The committee estimates there are between 430,000 and 480,000 double envelopes, enough for over 10 seats. They are counted separately in a special verification process, with final results expected Thursday.

Then the political maneuvering begins in earnest.

The next step runs through President Isaac Herzog, whose post-election role is pivotal. His job here is to consult with all elected parties on the candidate they recommend as prime minister, before picking the one he believes is most likely to secure a 61-seat majority. This is not necessarily the leader of the largest party but the one with the most plausible path to a coalition.

Eisenkot is likely to collect more recommendations than Netanyahu, since the Arab parties are expected to back him.

Then the clock starts ticking.

The chosen candidate has 28 days — and a possible 14-day extension — to negotiate with other parties over cabinet posts, budgets and policies in order to form a government. If he fails, the mandate passes to another candidate for another four weeks. If he fails, too, the Knesset gets a short window to put forward an alternative candidate. If that fails, the country goes to automatic elections.

Netanyahu, as caretaker prime minister, has a built-in advantage. If Eisenkot receives the mandate first — and fails — all he needs to do is wait for his time to pass. And if Israel finds itself headed for new elections, Netanyahu will remain caretaker for months.

Eisenkot’s options

Eisenkot isn’t out of options entirely.

Even without forming a government, the opposition could still leverage its parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key positions. That could limit Netanyahu’s ability to govern and even enable the opposition to advance legislation.

But Eisenkot, a retired lieutenant general, isn’t on his preferred battlefield. Netanyahu’s coalition remains incredibly loyal, and he doesn’t have to worry in any real way about defections. The same cannot be said for Eisenkot. His diverse coalition is far less ideologically aligned, and even the tiniest step could splinter the bloc and send the country back to elections.

For now, the focus is on Herzog, whose role is even more important given the current deadlock. With neither bloc holding a clear majority, he may try to push Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a unity government.

“We must do everything to avoid another round of elections,” Herzog said Wednesday. He called on party leaders to come to consultations with an “open mind.”

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