Trump and Greenland loom over Denmark’s snap election, but voters appear focused on other issues. Here’s what to know

By Lauren Kent, CNN

(CNN) — “Safe through uncertain times.”

That’s the message of stability that Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is staking her campaign on ahead of Tuesday’s general elections, as she tries to capitalize on her handling of the showdown with the Trump administration over Greenland.

Frederiksen – whose international profile has been boosted by her strong responses to the war in Ukraine, the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage and the threats made by US President Donald Trump – had to call an election sometime before October. And she chose her moment carefully.

Last year Frederiksen’s Social Democrats were faltering. The center-left party suffered huge losses during local elections, and its support dwindled to about 17% in December opinion polls, according to polling company Megafon. But following the prime minister’s handling of the reignited Greenland dispute a month later, it has rebounded to 20.9%, polling from Megafon conducted for Danish media outlets TV2 and Politiken showed.

While discussions on Greenland and the broader transatlantic alliance are taking up a lot of the international oxygen ahead of Tuesday’s elections, the talk at home is focused more on economic concerns.

“The campaign is basically about bread-and-butter issues,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, a Copenhagen-based think tank. “She tried to capitalize on this ‘rally around the flag effect,’ but everybody knew that was more a question of momentum. Because as soon as debates began, it’s really about the economy and environmental affairs this time.”

Danish voters appear most concerned about a cost-of-living crisis and inequality. There are also hot-button debates about the country’s decades-long ban on nuclear energy and its strict immigration policy. Not to mention a relatively large amount of discussion about more niche, local issues like the welfare of farm pigs.

Frederiksen, 48, is seeking her third term running the Scandinavian country. But disillusioned voters feel she hasn’t done enough to curb Denmark’s rising housing prices, food prices and energy costs. In her final week of campaigning, the incumbent said she is ready to intervene with food and heating support if the war in Iran pushes inflation up further.

One challenger is the leader of the center-right Liberal (or Venstre) party, Denmark’s current Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. Venstre is polling at about 10.1% after campaigning on tax cuts and even stricter immigration rules.

Another contender is 34-year-old Alex Vanopslagh, leader of center-right opposition party, the Liberal Alliance. He has run on a platform that’s also seeking lower taxes as well as cutting bureaucracy, but a cocaine scandal has rocked his campaign.

Greenland could play a pivotal role

Danish elections are far from simple. There are 12 main parties for voters to choose from. This means elections typically lead to broad coalition governments with politicians forced to make immediate compromises.

When elections are tight in Denmark – as they inevitably are because of the fragmented multi-party landscape, according to researcher Pram Gad – Greenland can play an outsized role in the vote. As a self-governing territory of Denmark, it has two members of parliament – as does the Faroe Islands. And on this occasion, they could have a huge impact.

“As a general rule, they are reluctant to interfere in Danish domestic politics, and they try to stay out of deciding who’s going to be the Danish prime minister. But every time the elections are tight, they are counted for a majority in parliament,” Pram Gad told CNN.

If the opinion polls prove correct, Frederiksen is on track to stay in power but could also oversee her party’s weakest result in more than a century.

The latest numbers show that the so-called “Red Bloc” – the likely coalition of left-leaning parties that includes Frederiksen’s Social Democrats – is narrowly ahead. The bloc is projected to win 86 seats, which would be just several shy of the 90-seats needed for a majority in Denmark’s 179-seat parliament, according to the Megafon poll .

In Denmark’s parliamentary system a party or bloc does not need to command a majority; it just needs to ensure there isn’t one against it in order to govern.

Meanwhile, the “Blue Bloc” of right-leaning parties is projected to win 78 seats. Their count could increase to 89 if the Moderates, led by Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, join their coalition.

As a result, the Moderates could become the kingmakers of the new government.

Interestingly, Greenland used to reliably send two left-wing MPs to Copenhagen. But this year, it’s likely that the Arctic island will elect at least one center-right parliamentarian to represent it in Denmark. And it’s possible that Faroese voters could follow the same path.

“There’s an increased focus on who will be elected from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, both because they might have a decisive influence on who is going to form a government in Denmark, but also because of all these tensions,” Pram Gad added.

The tensions have been ratcheted up following the US threats to annex Greenland. But long before Trump entered the scene, the relationship between Denmark and Greenland was contentious. Animosity stems from issues of colonial history and structural racism, concerns about how Greenlanders in Denmark are treated and the ever-present issue of the territory’s desire to break away.

“Greenland is basically still on this slow-motion path to independence,” explained Pram Gad, adding that Greenlandic parties are expected to use their position as deciders of the Danish government for leverage – to secure meaningful gains for their own economy and autonomy.

If Frederiksen and the Social Democrats win, she could become the second-longest serving leader in Danish history. Another full term would mean almost 11 years in office for Frederiksen – once Denmark’s ⁠youngest prime minister, but now a veteran who has been tested by crisis after crisis.

CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

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