The US and Israel went to war with Iran, but the UAE is paying the price. Here’s why
By Paula Hancocks, CNN
(CNN) — Iran warned any attack on the country would spark a regional conflict.
The United States and Israel either did not believe them or judged it a risk worth taking. Eleven days into the war, it is the Gulf Arab nations that are paying the price, none more so than the United Arab Emirates.
More than 1,700 missiles and drones have been fired towards the UAE since the war began, according to the country’s defense ministry, more than 90% of them downed by interceptors, fighter jets and helicopters.
US President Donald Trump admitted in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper last week that Iran’s willingness to strike its Arab neighbors had been his biggest surprise of the war.
On Sunday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was using 60% of its firepower against what it called US “bases” and “strategic interests” in neighboring Arab countries, with the rest directed at Israel.
More projectiles have been fired at the UAE than any other country, seemingly even more than Israel, which alongside the US started this war. Several have landed on homes, offices and roads in densely populated urban areas, killing four – all civilians.
Why Dubai?
“Dubai is really the epicenter of globalization,” says Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. “Iranian leaders view Dubai as the foundation of the Western global economic system… it rattles the world economy, not just Dubai and the UAE.”
Perception is key. Images of a fire burning in front of an international hotel in Dubai or a strike within the grounds of Dubai International Airport grab international attention as tens of thousands of expatriates and tourists try to leave the country. No one was injured in either of these attacks, but the psychological impact can be significant.
Gerges points out the irony of the UAE having served as an economic lifeline for Iran for years as Tehran struggled under one of the most severe sanction regimes in history. A UAE official told CNN that relations would eventually normalize, but it could take “decades” to rebuild trust.
The UAE is one of Iran’s biggest commercial partners, ranking second after China. Business between the two countries had been expanding even as the US kept tightening sanctions on the regime. Bilateral trade stood at $28 billion for 2024, according to the World Trade Organization.
Around half a million Iranians call the UAE home.
Iran cites the Abu Dhabi’s decades-long strategic alliance with Washington as a justification for the attacks. Designated a “major defense partner” by the US last year, the UAE has made clear who it trusts for its security.
It has poured tens of billions of dollars into American fighter jets, helicopters and air defense systems, which are now actively engaged in protecting Emiratis and expatriates from Iran’s unprecedented attack.
Inflicting pain on US allies
Sanam Vakil from Chatham House says the UAE ticks more than one box for the Islamic Republic in its desire to inflict pain on the US and its allies.
“By striking the UAE, Iran is not only targeting a key US partner but also signaling that a country hosting millions of expatriates and serving as a major node in global finance, aviation, and trade cannot be insulated.”
The extent of the retaliation may signal the extent to which the regime sees this war as an existential threat. When Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, joined in the final days by the US, Iran’s response was limited: a strike on the al Udeid airbase in Qatar which is believed to have been flagged ahead of time.
President Trump signed an executive order to give Qatar, which has also been targeted by Iran during the current war, a NATO-style security guarantee after that attack.
And then, there is the geographical argument. Only around 100 kilometers (60 miles) of water separate Iran and the UAE; missiles and drones do not take long to reach Emirati shores.
“Literally, it’s next door. It’s much easier to attack Dubai and the United Arab Emirates than to attack other countries, let’s say Jordan or Israel, because Israel is well protected by an air defense system,” says Gerges.
The UAE had forbidden the use of its military bases or airspace in the event an attack on Iran went ahead.
That position did nothing to insulate the UAE.
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan visited some of the injured over the weekend and issued a rare warning to the country’s enemies; “I say to them – do not be misled by the UAE’s appearance. The UAE has thick skin and bitter flesh – we are no easy prey.”
Shock becomes anger
Shock at being the number one target on Iran’s retaliation list has quickly shifted to anger.
Mina Al-Oraibi is the editor of the UAE newspaper The National. “On the morning the war started, there was a real upset by people you spoke to that Israel and the US had gone for the military option… but very soon after as Iran started to strike the UAE and other countries, the rage and sense of injustice really turned to Iran.”
Hope and relief after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized at the weekend and said Iran would no longer target its neighbors was short-lived as fresh salvos threatened the UAE and other Gulf nations.
In conflict, there is always the alternate reality of “business as usual” and there is no shortage of bikini-clad sun worshippers on the beach in Dubai who refuse to allow a war they want no part in to change their lives.
The-CNN-Wire
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