5 key questions about how arrests in Michigan terror plot went down

By David J. Lopez, CNN

(CNN) — At 7:32 a.m. on Friday, FBI Director Kash Patel posted on X that his agency “thwarted a potential terrorist attack and arrested multiple subjects in Michigan.”

“More details to come,” Patel said.

Two law enforcement sources with knowledge of the case told CNN about a cryptic reference to “pumpkin day,” online chats about an ISIS-inspired attack, and activity at a shooting range.

The more details Patel promised ultimately arrived Monday in the form of a 73-page criminal complaint accusing Mohmed Ali and Majed Mahmoud of plotting an ISIS-inspired Halloween attack in the US.

Mahmoud’s attorney, William “Bill” Swor, told CNN his client and Ali are both 20 years old. He declined to provide additional details. CNN asked Ali’s attorney for comment after the criminal complaint was released Monday.

A detention hearing for both men is scheduled for November 10.

CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller on Monday addressed five key questions related to the case.

How atypical was the process here? The FBI director announces arrests on X, and three days later the details are released in the form of a criminal complaint.

It’s not typical to announce a case before charges are filed. But there were a number of considerations here. When it seemed like the alleged attack was becoming imminent, the FBI decided to move in on the suspects early. The social media post from the FBI director was likely his way of being transparent in a case where multiple high-profile FBI raids in a tight-knit community were definitely going to leak out. He has said before he is the most transparent FBI director in the agency’s history. His forward lean on these things is deliberate.

What kind of complications can arise going forward when the FBI director goes public with the case so early?

Just the kind we saw. The early announcement left the public with more questions than answers and allowed for a lot of speculation. They may have tried to compensate for that by the enormous amount of detail that they included in the 73-page public document released Monday charging two men in the alleged plot.

What did we learn from the criminal complaint that makes a case for prosecutors?

We learned, according to the FBI, just how close we may have come to a horrific terrorist attack. The complaint tells us that these individuals have been using encrypted apps and chat groups to communicate for months. Talking about potential attacks, martyring themselves for ISIS. What the date of the attack should be, looking at potential targets. According to the complaint, the youngest member of the group, a 16-year-old boy, was the one who was pushing the hardest not to wait any longer, to do the attack on Halloween. We also learned from the complaint that they purchased multiple AR-15 rifles and a shotgun and equipped them with laser-pointed sights and flashlights to be able to pick out targets in the dark. They went to target practice in groups multiple times, according to the complaint. The lead agent in the FBI investigation believes that two trips they made just days before the arrest to look at a strip of nightclubs and bars were likely a reconnaissance mission, the complaint alleges, and the agent believed the targets under consideration were LGBTQ+ nightclubs.

What did we not learn from the complaint that may be beneficial to the defense?

We did not learn full details about the role of a “confidential human source” referred to in the complaint. This was likely an FBI informant, but there were also references to an FBI “undercover employee” who may have also been an agent. For the FBI, having two people on the inside providing information would give them a real advantage. From the defense standpoint, there is always the “agent provocateur” defense, that people not predisposed to this may have been entrapped into the plot. Well, that defense has been raised in many, many cases since 9/11. It has done much better on the courthouse steps in the lawyer’s press conferences than it has fared in court in front of a jury.

What are next steps for investigators?

There are two people charged in the federal complaint, and both are adults. So one question is, where is the 16-year-old who was such a high-profile driver of this alleged plot? Is he cooperating? Is he charged in a separate document that is sealed because of his age? Or is he facing state charges in Michigan that may be coming later? Beyond that, the complaint describes other people involved in the conspiracy who have also not been charged. I think we can expect more arrests. This didn’t come together the way these things usually do. The FBI had to move quickly at the end of last week to prevent what they believed was then an imminent plot. So they will go over the evidence they gathered in the search warrants, what they find in the computers and on the phones, and what they learned by questioning these suspects after they were arrested in the early morning hours of Halloween. There’s definitely more to come.

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