Clock ticking for the Southeast as next tropical threat looms, with US impacts likely by Monday

By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman

(CNN) — More tropical trouble is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean, with the National Hurricane Center now on high alert for the formation of a new storm that will join Hurricane Humberto. But unlike Humberto, this one could go on to directly impact the United States.

The powerful cluster of thunderstorms is already drenching Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola with heavy rain and gusty winds. As it moves toward the Bahamas and very warm ocean water this weekend, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for development. The hurricane center gives it a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Imelda within the next couple of days.

Humberto became a hurricane early Friday morning as it drifted over warm water and a less hostile environment in the central Atlantic. It is not a direct threat to the US, but it could rapidly intensify and grow into a Category 3 or greater major hurricane this weekend as it tracks northwest, most likely staying west of Bermuda, by early next week.

If this new system organizes Friday or Saturday, as predicted, and then takes aim at the Southeast US, landfall could come as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Late-season storms that form closer to home, like this one, leave very little time for people to prepare along the Southeast coast. This short timeline and the high uncertainty of this forecast may only curtail preparation time further.

The latest forecast guidance indicates the Carolinas as the most likely landfall location, but uncertainty is unusually high. Slight shifts in Humberto’s track or the jet stream dipping over the East Coast could change the outcome dramatically.

Two storms, one complex setup

While Humberto itself is not a direct US threat, its size and position could influence how future Imelda develops, how quickly it moves and where it tracks.

A weaker, slower storm could be tugged harmlessly out to sea by Humberto, while a stronger, faster Imelda might resist that pull and take a path toward the Southeast coast. If the two storms get close enough, they could even circle each other in a phenomenon called the Fujiwhara effect – though that scenario looks less likely now than earlier this week.

Even if the East Coast is spared an Imelda landfall, a tangential brush from the tropical system could bring rain and wind to coastal and inland areas, not to mention dangerous surf. In fact, with Humberto spinning offshore, the beaches all up and down the Eastern seaboard will be plagued by life-threatening rip currents and large swells for much of next week. So much depends on the strength, size, and forward speed of these two storms, all of which are still to be determined.

What’s at stake

Monday into Tuesday would be the most likely timing for any impacts in the Southeast. The Carolinas have the highest odds for possible landfall, but that could change quickly as these two storms develop and interact. Even if the US escapes a landfall completely, tropical moisture could still funnel into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, fueling heavy rain and a serious flood risk.

An even more concerning scenario is one in which future Imelda races toward the Southeast coast and then gets trapped beneath a cut-off low pressure system – a pocket of stalled storm energy that has broken away from the jet stream. This means the remnants of a tropical system would essentially be stuck in a meteorological trap, wringing out soaking rains over parts of the Southeast for days on end.

If that happens, widespread flooding is possible, with swollen rivers and streams that could take days to recede. The combination of tropical moisture and a stalled weather pattern is the exact recipe for some of the Southeast’s most damaging flood events.

Anyone from the Bahamas to the US East Coast will need to keep a close eye on the forecast in the coming days for what’s likely to be Imelda as rain, wind and storm surge threats come into better focus. This homegrown storm will leave a very narrow window to prepare.

The-CNN-Wire
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