Central Coast may be in for a wet winter in 15/16

Forecasters can detect El Nio conditions when sea surface temperatures rise near the equator. It’s early in the year for this type of system to form, but already forecasters say a moderate level El Nio system is definitely developing.

Forecasters say this does not necessarily mean that California is due for a wet winter, but it shows that the potential is there. It’s a double edged sword, with a wet winter also comes the threat of flooding if the system brings too much rain at once.

Jim Massey with the National Weather Service says, “So when you get into a situation like that when you have days and weeks of rain, yeah flooding becomes more of a probability and a likelihood. So it depends on the duration and the intensity of the storms.”

The El Nio system we are seeing now is most likely to bring rain to southern California if it remains a moderate system. If it develops into a strong El Nio system, then northern California will enjoy a very wet winter.

News Channel 5 Chief Meteorologist Dann Cianca says the Central Coast could be the beneficiary of this latest El Nio, “A strong El Nio heading into winter often means above average precipitation for the Central Coast. That effect is more amplified in southern California, but there is some correlation for the central portion of the state as well.”

Forecasters say we have had many a El Nio develop over the years and still had dry winters, so it is too early to know what this latest development will bring.

Says Massey, “There’s a lot of uncertainty of the El Nio, there is some certainty that El Nino will continue through the winter and that’s a pretty high certainty. But as far as the strength, it’s too early to tell.”