Oil climbs above $116 after Trump says he wants to ‘take the oil’ in Iran

By Hanna Ziady, CNN

London (CNN) — Oil prices rose Monday, with Brent crude crossing $116 a barrel, after comments by US President Donald Trump sparked fears that the Middle East conflict may escalate further.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose to $116.5 a barrel before paring those gains to trade just above $115.5, 2.6% up on the day. WTI, the US benchmark, climbed 1.7% to above $101 a barrel.

Trump told the Financial Times in an interview published Sunday that he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of the country’s oil exports. He compared the potential move to US operations in Venezuela, according to the FT, where the United States intends to control the oil industry “indefinitely” following its capture of authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 50% so far in March following the US-Israeli war against Iran. On Friday, Brent settled at $112.57, its highest settlement level since 2022. Brent had traded around $73 a barrel before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of global oil supply.

Trump also told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday that the US was having “very good” negotiations with Iran, adding that Tehran had agreed to “most of” Washington’s 15-point list of demands to end the war. Iranian officials have previously expressed skepticism of the plan, which is believed to include a commitment to not developing nuclear weapons, handing over Iran’s highly enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are also working to bring the war to an end. The officials gathered Sunday in what was described as a “very productive” meeting, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. He added that Pakistan will facilitate talks between the United States and Iran in the “coming days.”

Meanwhile, the United States has sent thousands of troops to the Middle East over the past week, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, on Sunday accused the United States of “secretly planning a ground invasion” while touting negotiations. He also said Tehran’s forces are “waiting” for US troops.

Adding to fears about a ramp-up in the fighting, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the conflict over the weekend, launching strikes against Israel Saturday. The rebels could close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to global shipping lines.

$200 oil if war drags on until June

“There’s still no sign of a clear end to the conflict, and given the various headlines, investors remain fearful about a fresh escalation,” Jim Reid, head of global macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note Monday. According to Reid, “the market impact is becoming increasingly serious,” as “investors price in a more protracted conflict.”

He noted that the S&P 500 has now fallen for five consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since 2022, when the global economy was facing a similar risk of higher inflation and lower economic growth.

On Monday, Asian markets closed down with heavy selling in Seoul and Tokyo. European markets were mixed in morning trade while US futures pointed to a slightly stronger open.

Brent crude oil could reach $200 a barrel if the war continues until the end of June, analysts at Macquarie Group wrote in a note Friday. If the Strait of Hormuz were to remain shut until the end of June, given its importance to oil supply, prices would need to move high enough for global demand for oil to fall, the analysts wrote. They put the likelihood of this outcome at 40%.

In a different scenario, assigned a probability of 60%, the conflict ceases at the end of this month and oil prices fall quickly. Still, prices remain above those seen before the war, returning to “the low $80s next year,” the Macquarie analysts said.

“If the war begins to wind down soon, the economic costs will likely be relatively small, with global (economic) growth to slow only a little relative to last year,” they added.

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