Oil dips but stays elevated as Goldman Sachs warns prices may top $100 through 2027

By John Liu, CNN

Hong Kong (CNN) — Oil prices edged lower on Friday after a tumultuous day that saw the international benchmark surge above $119 a barrel as the Middle East conflict deepened energy supply fears.

But analysts warned prices would stay elevated, with energy infrastructure damaged, and vital oil and gas shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.

Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027.

“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote in a note on Thursday.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dipped 0.6% to $108 early Friday. WTI, the US benchmark, slid 1.1% to $94.6.

The moderated prices came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will heed President Donald Trump’s call not to repeat attacks on key Iranian energy sites. The Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars field triggered the latter’s retaliation against Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility, sending oil prices surging.

Trump also sought to reassure Americans facing the highest gas prices in almost two and a half years, saying “it’s going to be over with pretty soon.” He also added that, before Israel and the US launched their war against Iran, he had thought the prices would be “much worse.”

But three weeks in, the conflict shows no sign of abating. Middle Eastern countries reported intercepting drones and missiles as dawn broke on Friday.

The Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman – has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off 20% of the world’s oil supply.

A senior Iranian security source told CNN on Thursday that the strait “will not return to pre-war conditions,” reiterating earlier threats that the waterway would be disrupted if Iran came under attack.

With the strait nearly blocked for almost three weeks – marking “the largest oil supply shock on record” – Goldman Sachs expected oil prices would likely trend higher. It warned that the Brent benchmark could exceed its all-time high, set in 2008, of around $147 per barrel, if supply disruptions lengthen.

In the worst-case scenario, the bank estimated that Brent prices would be around $111 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027 if oil supply through the strait remains very low for over two months and production stays at 2 million barrel per day after reopening.

The more favorable case, according to Goldman Sachs, comes with a gradual recovery in oil flows through the strait from April, easing the Brent price to the $70s by the fourth quarter of 2026, though the strikes on energy infrastructure this week further heightened risks on long-term price.

Already, QatarEnergy, the state-owned operator of Ras Laffan, said the missile attacks reduced the country’s export capacity of liquefied natural gas by 17%, and it could take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.

Under pressure to lower prices

To combat the heightened gasoline prices, the Trump administration is considering a host of options.

In a show of a deepening crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to lower oil prices – which might mean padding the war chest of a US enemy.

But the White House has so far ruled out imposing a ban on crude oil and gas exports as a possible way to ease surging energy prices, an administration official told CNN.

As part of a historic emergency oil release agreed by 32 countries of the International Energy Agency earlier this month, the United States has committed to releasing more than 172 million barrels of crude from its reserves.

Trump has publicly called for allied support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The United Kingdom has sent a small deployment of military planners to work with the US to come up with a “viable collective plan,” a UK defense official said. Other US partners, however, have said that they are unlikely to send military assets into the strait amid active hostilities.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen, Mohammed Tawfeeq and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.