Post-Thanksgiving cross-country winter storm could wreck travel as it brings the most widespread snow of the season
By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN
(CNN) — Holiday travelers in the United States avoiding widespread disruptive weather ahead of Thanksgiving might not be so fortunate during their post-holiday journeys.
A new storm that will first impact the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving night is expected to morph into a full-blown, cross-country storm with the potential to dump heavy rain and accumulating snow across more than 1,000 miles of the country this weekend.
The storm will also open the door for a new, colder rush of frigid Arctic air to send temperatures plummeting for millions right before the calendar flips to December.
A potent, quick-hitting winter storm is already causing issues for some travelers ahead of all this. Several inches of snow and strong winds have already hit parts of the Midwest and blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of Wisconsin and Michigan as the storm tracks through the Great Lakes Wednesday and heads into Canada overnight.
Considerable lake-effect snow will follow the storm through the rest of the week. Lake-effect snow warnings for up to 20 inches of snow and wind gusts to 50 mph are in effect from northeast Ohio to northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York.
Here’s what to expect for the post-Turkey Day storm.
The big picture
The storm will push into the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving night and bring a batch of rain and some higher elevation snow to the region.
It will slide into the Rockies on Friday as cold air starts to seep into the northern US. Snow will begin in parts of the northern Rockies and the northern Plains as the storm meshes with the winterlike air.
The center of the storm is forecast to move into the Plains by Saturday morning and strengthen throughout the day as it heads toward the Midwest.
It will spread precipitation over much of the country’s midsection with a rather stark dividing line between rain and snow Saturday. Rain will fall south of its center while it generates snow in Nebraska, Kansas and parts of the Midwest. Winds will also increase as the storm strengthens.
Areas east of the Mississippi River will have to deal with the storm on Sunday while the center of the country gets hit with a blast of frigid mid-winterlike air. Snow is likely in the Great Lakes and parts of the northern Appalachians with rain stretching through the South.
The storm will move off the East Coast early Monday.
The snowy side
Exact snowfall amounts are difficult to pin down multiple days in advance of the storm, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that a stripe of accumulating snow will stretch from the Rockies to the Appalachians to close out November.
As of now, the two most-used weather forecast models — the GFS and ECMWF — are projecting snowfall in similar areas, but the amounts differ in a few locations. The discrepancy has to do with how each model is projecting both the strength of the storm and the amount of cold air available.
A more precise snowfall total forecast will likely come into focus by Friday. Regardless, it’s the most widespread opportunity for accumulating snow in meteorological fall — September through November this year.
This storm will likely bring snow on Saturday to places around the Great Lakes like Chicago that have already been snowy this season because of lake-effect snow.
Other typically snowy areas have been shortchanged so far. Minneapolis averages at least a half-foot of snow by now but only just recorded its first measurable snow — at least 0.1 inches — Tuesday night. That’s three weeks later than normal.
The rainy side
Rain could also disrupt holiday travel south of the snowy areas. Concern is growing that heavy rain — and potentially a few thunderstorms — could produce flash flooding in parts of the South starting Saturday.
Portions of eastern Texas — including Houston — southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana could experience periods of flash flooding on Saturday.
Steady rain will expand to much of the East on Sunday. This rain is less likely to cause flash flooding issues, but could cause slow-going travel for anyone driving in the area.
Winter air is coming
A batch of chilly air is already starting to filter into the country ahead of Thanksgiving, but an even colder blast is on the way this weekend.
The new round of significant temperature drops will begin Saturday in the Rockies and Plains as Arctic air plunges into the US behind the storm. High temperatures in the teens and low 20s are likely as far south as Kansas.
Temperatures will sink to downright frigid levels overnight into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the single digits in much of the north-central US and dip below freezing all the way into northern Texas.
Sunday’s high temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than typical for much of the central US. Some parts of the Midwest could end up with highs stuck below freezing, closer to 30 degrees colder than normal.
The cold air will expand east with overnight low temperatures at or below freezing expected in most of the Lower 48. Parts of Montana, the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest could wake up to temperatures several degrees below zero on Monday, December 1.
December marks the start of meteorological winter — December through February — and it will certainly feel like it well into the first week of the season.
The upcoming Arctic blast could be preview of more cold to come deeper into December from a disruption of the polar vortex.
The-CNN-Wire
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