Jerry is zipping across the Atlantic at breakneck speed. Here’s where the future hurricane is headed

By CNN Meteorologists Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Jerry is rushing across the central Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday.

Jerry, which formed Tuesday, is the 10th named storm of a late-blooming season that has produced three hurricanes in just over two weeks.

Tropical Storm Jerry had sustained winds of 60 mph as of early Wednesday evening and was about 600 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical storm watch is in effect for most of the Leeward Islands, which means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in the area within around 48 hours. It could also bring rain to these islands, depending on its exact track.

It was moving at 23 mph to the west-northwest, nearly double the average rate of speed for a storm in its location. That speed was preventing it from strengthening, but the storm is still likely to slow down and become a hurricane as it tracks near or north of the northern Leeward islands later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Jerry is not expected threaten the mainland United States because a cold front will sweep off the East Coast and help deflect it out to sea.

East Coast cold fronts like these become more common in October, so more worrisome for the US are late-season storms that often form in the Gulf and Caribbean. Since these regions are closer to land, any storms that form have a greater chance to cause dangerous impacts.

There is a low chance a system could try to develop in the southwest Gulf later this week, but of greater interest is a storm-spawning weather pattern that might develop by mid-October.

A broad area of stormy weather is likely to form around that time and rotate around the western Caribbean region, according to an outlook issued last week by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University.

Known as the Central American Gyre, this area of stormy weather and spin is notorious for generating late-season storms. It’s too early to know if this weather pattern will produce a storm this October, but forecasters will be monitoring the region deeper into the month.

Boom or bust to finish the season?

Four named storms typically form in October and November, but some hurricane seasons can have a stronger finish while others mostly shut off.

The last few years illustrate this year-to-year ebb and flow. Seven storms formed during October and November last season, but just two formed during the same time in 2023.

While there are usually fewer storms at the tail end of the season, recent years show how destructive they can still be.

Hurricane Michael in 2018 was the latest in the season a Category 5 has made landfall in the US after it roared into the Florida Panhandle on October 10. Two years earlier, Hurricane Matthew caused October destruction from the Caribbean to the Carolinas. And maybe most notorious of all: Hurricane Sandy morphed into a hybrid superstorm in late-October 2012 and walloped the East Coast.

Last year’s late-season run began in late-September when Hurricane Helene ravaged the Southeast with its catastrophic flooding and winds. It was punctuated by Hurricane Milton’s exceptional burst to Category 5 strength before weakening as it struck the Florida Peninsula in early October.

A similar ramp up of activity in late-September has happened this year after the Atlantic shed the hostile-for-hurricane conditions it had earlier in the month.

After Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 monster in mid-August, the Atlantic mostly went to sleep. Then came a barrage of three hurricanes — Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda — forming in a two-week-stretch to end September, breaking an unusual quiet spell.

Hurricanes Gabrielle and Humberto also rapidly intensified like Erin. Gabrielle exploded into a strong Category 4, while Humberto became the season’s second Category 5.

Still, no hurricanes have made a US landfall this season. If that luck continues through the end of November, it would be first hurricane landfall-free season in a decade.

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