Tropical Storm Gabrielle has run into an atmospheric road block, but it’s still forecast to strengthen

By CNN Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce, CNN

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is struggling to organize after it formed Wednesday in the central Atlantic Ocean and put an end to an unusual nearly three-week stretch with no storms during the peak of hurricane season.

Gabrielle was churning around 700 miles east-northeast of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands on Thursday with sustained winds of 50 mph.

Although the Atlantic is plenty warm for strengthening, the storm is facing some hurdles in the atmosphere that are limiting its ability to strengthen quickly. A healthy storm would have thunderstorms blossoming near its center, but Gabrielle is struggling to do that because of dry air that keeps storms from forming and hostile upper-level winds known as wind shear that rip storms apart.

Those challenges will continue over the next couple of days, but the National Hurricane Center still thinks Gabrielle will become a hurricane by Monday as it travels northwest and enters a less hostile environment.

The United States is not expected to see direct impacts from this system, but it might churn up surf on the East Coast next week.

Gabrielle is the first tropical storm in the Atlantic since Fernand fizzled on August 28.

For only the second time since 1950, the Atlantic went storm-free from August 29 through September 16, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University. The last time that happened was in a quiet period after Hurricane Andrew’s devastating strike on the US in 1992.

High pressure to the north of this system will act as a steering wheel the next few days, with its clockwise motion sending the storm on a west-northwest path that will take it well north of the islands of the eastern Caribbean by this weekend.

That high pressure will then weaken enough to turn the system more north and then northeast into the central Atlantic by early next week. Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle closely, but it appears this forecast path should keep the brunt of any rain and wind impacts to the east of the archipelago.

On the heels of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the hurricane center is also monitoring another area of showers and storms for development near the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic, tracking west.

This system will not be a threat to land for at least the next week, regardless of whether it becomes a tropical depression or storm, but it could bring locally heavy rain to the Cabo Verde Islands in the coming days.

September is prime time for tropical trouble, but 2025 hit the snooze button

The seventh tropical storm of the season typically forms by September 3, so this storm is about two weeks late.

Most tropical activity in the Atlantic – depressions, storms and hurricanes – occurs from mid-August to mid-October. But most of September is typically very busy, as it’s when multiple atmospheric and oceanic conditions combine to make it easy for tropical systems to spring to life.

This September has had plenty of warm water to serve as jet fuel for tropical trouble. Sea surface temperatures across the basin are currently warmer than normal and have been that way for most of the summer.

But of the season’s six tropical storms through August, only one has become a hurricane: Erin. Erin was a frightening peek into a new world order of how strong Atlantic storms are becoming as the planet warms.

The Atlantic has struggled to produce storms this year because of factors above the ocean.

The tropical Atlantic has been enveloped in dry, stable air. This factor can help limit any wannabe tropical systems from producing stormy weather.

Storm-killing winds in different levels of the atmosphere known as wind shear have also been stronger than usual for this time of year in western and central parts of the Atlantic.

Those two atmospheric factors have been a hindrance for the formation of tropical systems from areas of stormy weather that move off the coast of Africa and into the open Atlantic this time of year.

The breeding ground for storms shrinks westward away from Africa heading into October. The Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are typical formation hot spots late in the season, and since these regions are closer to land, any storms that form have a greater chance to cause dangerous impacts.

This has been updated.

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