The Democrat vying to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene faces a tall task, but Republicans are still watching closely

By Molly English, CNN

(CNN) — A Democrat’s bid to pull off a major upset Tuesday in former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s ruby-red Georgia district will be closely watched by national Republicans trying to maintain a razor-thin House majority.

The race to replace Greene, the former ally of President Donald Trump turned critic who resigned from Congress in January, advanced to a runoff when neither Democrat Shawn Harris nor Republican Clay Fuller was able to win a majority in a crowded all-party election on March 10.

Harris, a retired Army brigadier general, has garnered national attention, with Pete Buttigieg going to Georgia to speak to his supporters last month. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock also joined Harris at a campaign event last week.

Harris has significantly outraised Fuller, pulling in nearly $6.5 million to Fuller’s $1.2 million.

Still, it will be a tall task for Harris to win given the conservative bent of Greene’s old district. Greene beat him by nearly 30 percentage points in 2024.

A potential win by Harris, although a long shot, would be devastating to the House GOP majority, especially because a special election in New Jersey to fill Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s seat, in just over a week, will almost certainly add another Democrat to House ranks.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson can lose only one vote with his slim majority. If Democrats pull off the unlikely upset Tuesday and snag the expected victory in New Jersey, Johnson could be looking at a scenario in which he cannot afford to lose a single vote.

And what little majority Republicans do have is not always a functional one. California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP to become an independent, caucuses with Republicans but isn’t always guaranteed to vote with them. Rep. Thomas Massie, an outspoken critic of the Trump administration, also isn’t a reliable vote for Johnson.

A wide field of a dozen Republicans split the vote and prevented Fuller, who is endorsed by Trump, from overtaking Harris as the top vote-getter in the first round, with Fuller winning nearly 35% of the vote compared with Harris’ 37%.

That fact didn’t seem to deter Harris, who said just after the results were tallied last month that the district “won’t turn blue, but it’ll turn pink.”

Speaking to reporters at his election night watch party in March, Fuller stressed that “the endorsement from President Trump made a difference in this race,” expressing confidence that he would emerge victorious in the runoff.

An endorsement by the president is highly coveted by Republicans running for Senate, House or in smaller regular and special elections for state legislature seats.

There have been a few high-profile losses among some Trump-endorsed candidates recently: Last month, Republican Jon Maples, endorsed by Trump in January, lost a special election for a seat in a Florida state House district that includes Mar-a-Lago, and North Carolina Senate leader Phil Berger, a powerful leader in the state, narrowly lost his primary.

It’s important to note that special elections, especially special runoff elections, often feature low turnout, placing an especially high emphasis on voter enthusiasm that can swing results more effectively than in larger elections.

It might not be the last time these candidates go up against each other, as the general primary for the full term is May 19. Both Fuller and Harris qualified for the ballot last month, along with many of the candidates they ran against in the special election in March.

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CNN’s Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.