Should I book travel now? What the Iran war means for your plans
By CNN Travel staff, CNN
(CNN) — From the gas pump to the superstore checkout, the repercussions of the war with Iran will soon start to eat into household budgets around the world. And while these everyday concerns pale compared to the terrors of conflict experienced by those in the firing line, they’re a reality for many.
The world of travel is no different. Global aviation routes were immediately plunged into turmoil when conflict broke out in the Middle East at the end of February. Now the effects are spreading across the map.
That’s raised questions for many people with existing travel plans or looking ahead to summer vacations, business trips or essential journeys.
Here’s what to know before you travel:
Should I book a flight now or wait?
With oil prices surging, there have been reports of flight prices escalating sharply as airlines hedge against rises in jet fuel costs. But with the duration of the war unclear, should travelers hoping to fly in summer or later in the year hang on to see if ticket prices come down again?
No, says Clint Henderson, principal spokesperson for The Points Guy, which specializes in advice to travelers seeking to get the most out of their airline points, miles and credit cards. Even if your travel date is far over the horizon.
“We’re recommending that people book whenever they can, for the rest of the year, now,” he tells CNN Travel.
In normal times, he says, travelers are advised to buy tickets one to two months ahead of departure for domestic US flights, or two to three months for international. Right now, those guidelines have been thrown out the window.
Several carriers have already warned of price rises. The CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby, this week suggested that the impact of higher jet fuel costs on tickets would “probably start quick.”
Henderson says oil price spikes are not always passed straight on to air travelers. “But when the United CEO is warning prices are going to increase soon, you can pretty much take it to the bank.”
For domestic US flights, Henderson recommends using sites like Junova.AI and pAIback, which monitor prices and secure credits for passengers if they drop. He also warns against booking basic economy in times of uncertainty, because there are more restrictions on refunds or alterations.
Travelers on international flights also face more restrictions in terms of refunds or rebooking — so it’s wise to check policies before booking and also avoid basic economy if there is likely to be uncertainty. Middle Eastern carriers are being relatively flexible right now, Henderson says, and passengers with stashes of points or miles should consider using them, again, for the flexibility they offer.
How will the war affect the price of travel?
The disruption is costing the tourism sector at least $600 million a day in lost international visitor spending, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, which before the conflict had forecast travelers would spend $207 billion in the region in 2026. The blow to the sector could translate into higher flight and hotel prices — but how much higher is still unclear.
The Middle East accounts for about 5% of global international arrivals, and around 10% of US passengers traveling to Asia pass through hubs in the region, according to Cirium Ascend Consultancy.
One major factor will be fuel costs. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel in the past week before easing, and airlines’ exposure varies depending on whether they hedge fuel purchases. According to Cirium, US carriers have little or no hedging, while some European and Asian airlines — including Singapore Airlines and Qantas — have locked in prices for part of their fuel.
Higher costs may also come from longer routes and diversions. With some airspace closed, airlines including Emirates and Qatar Airways have had to reroute flights, burning more fuel. Direct Europe-Asia routes are already under pressure, with many forced through a narrow corridor over Georgia and Azerbaijan or onto longer southern paths.
Airlines can absorb higher fuel costs for a time, but prolonged increases usually lead to higher fares. Travel operators are trying to limit disruption by rerouting passengers where possible.
“The airport has done a fantastic job of rerouting passengers, which we’re also seeing with other hubs in the region that are affected by the conflict,” Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council told CNN Travel, referring to Dubai International Airport. Such flexibility, she said, will help restore confidence and could limit price volatility as travelers plan summer trips.
The Middle East is off-limits, but is there anywhere else I should avoid?
That depends on your tolerance of potential delays or disruption. Since the airspace over the Middle East is so crucial to global travel, if you’re flying long haul it’s possible that you’ll be caught in the chaos. This might involve rerouting, canceled flights, or simply increased flight times as airlines give the area a wide berth.
Some adjacent regions may be affected. On March 9 the US government “strongly advised” Americans to leave southeast Turkey. Global risk analyst Elizabeth Stephens, managing director of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, says Turkey is “potentially a risk”— its proximity puts it at risk of receiving possible missiles, she believes.
Markus Kendall-Young, founder and managing director of Auria Travel, says he’d currently go anywhere that isn’t subject to a travel advisory — he’s going to Turkey in May, although he has many clients canceling trips to nearby destinations, including Cyprus and Egypt. For those booking future flights from Europe to Asia, he’s routing them through places such as Bangkok and Hong Kong to avoid connecting in the Middle East.
Brian Moore, managing director of GSA Global, which analyses risk for business travel, says that some of his clients are pausing all business travel until the situation improves. Others are relocating meetings to third countries, or picking a smaller town rather than a capital city.
And are there other safety considerations?
Stephens says she “expects” lone wolf attacks by supporters of the Iranian regime in the US, and potentially in other countries.
Her main advice: “If you’re going somewhere pay attention to what’s going on. Be engaged. Most people don’t do that.”
Moore agrees that there’s a risk of attacks elsewhere in the world. “That could be a hotel if there are lots of Western people using it.”
But while Moore and Kendall-Young don’t believe that staying in big-name Western hotel chains could be risky, Stephens suggests avoiding them.
“I think smaller boutique hotels and privately owned guesthouses are far safer,” she says. “The prospect of a little B&B being attacked is much less.” She’s considering a business trip to Dubai at the end of April and is considering an Airbnb rather than major brand hotel.
Moore says that what goes for business travelers goes for leisure, too. “Have a good think about where you’re going, why you’re going there, and where you need to go in that place. Follow government advice and make sure you’re insured for the reasonable things that could go wrong.” He also suggests having plans for a worst-case scenario — if you get stuck somewhere, the cat will need feeding. Check the small print of your travel insurance. “The devil is in the detail,” says Moore.
Kendall-Young says that during times of instability, booking with a travel agent means getting assistance when you most need it. “If you’re traveling on a protected package, you’ve got support if you need to move or change —that’s important,” he says. “If you booked it yourself, you have to be your own travel agent.”
Is it safe to fly between Europe and Asia?
The Iran conflict has caused severe airspace disruption, with a number of flight paths no longer available.
Air travel between Europe and Asia has typically flowed straight through the Middle East, with the region’s airspace described as “a high-capacity bridge” between the two.
However, large parts of the Middle East airspace remain closed, including Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait, while airspace over Israel, UAE and Qatar is still heavily restricted, according to OPSGROUP, an international organization for flight operations professionals.
With the central Gulf corridor effectively closed, airlines have been switching to routes either north via the Caucasus and Afghanistan or a southern corridor via Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
“For the airlines based in the major Gulf hubs, the disruption is massive,” Ian Douglas, an honorary senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales’ school of aviation, tells CNN Travel.
“For the Chinese carriers that fly over Russian airspace there has been little to no disruption.”
Douglas adds that for Turkish airlines “whose flights routinely track further north over Turkmenistan, “impacts are “minor,” along with Australian flag carrier Qantas, which has amended the route of its nonstop flight from Perth to London to include a fueling stop in Singapore.
So should travelers be concerned? Tony Stanton, consultant director of Strategic Air in Australia, stresses that airlines “run really structured intelligence, informed risk assessments,” and any safety concerns beyond the affected region are unwarranted.
“Major airlines don’t just make these decisions just by looking at Flightradar24 and going, ‘All right. Everybody else is going to the north. Let’s go north,’” Stanton told CNN recently.
“They’ve got specialist security teams, flight ops teams, dispatch teams. They listen to government advice. They probably get some intelligence that we don’t get, and they make very careful decisions about when they’re going to operate,” he says.
“Particularly the major airlines … I personally would be comfortable to jump on a British Airways or a Qantas or Emirates aircraft if that aircraft was operating, because I have comfort in the systems and the risk assessments.”
I’ve heard there are fuel shortages in some places. Is there a risk of being stranded?
Fuel shortages will impact aviation, but it’s unlikely that fuel-related issues will cause last-minute surprises for travelers.
“There’s such communication between the airlines and the fuel supply chain and so forth that they will know days in advance that there’s issues,” Tony Stanton, consultant director of Strategic Air in Australia, tells CNN Travel.
Using this advanced intel, airlines can determine if they need to avoid certain airports or cancel flights. This, of course, still means disruption for travelers — but you’re unlikely to be unexpectedly stranded.
Fueling an aircraft isn’t like us fueling our cars, Stanton explains. Airlines don’t turn up and hope for the best: “It’s planned in advance.”
Each airport stores a shared infrastructure of fuel. Different airports will store different amounts of fuel — depending on their traffic — and airlines will be aware of each hub’s supply and reserve.
“The major hubs obviously carry quite a large amount of fuel reserve,” says Stanton. “So, if there was a disruption, what they would start to do is to limit the uplift that was allowable well in advance of running out of fuel.”
Airlines also wouldn’t risk flying to an airport with a low fuel reserve, says Stanton. Plus, aircraft can carry extra fuel — so if airlines know there are uplift restrictions at certain air hubs, they can come prepared.
This all means flights are unlikely to be canceled due to fuel shortages at the last minute, says Stanton. It’ll probably happen, but it’ll happen in advance.
Relatedly, airlines may also cancel flights because of the change in fuel price — something that’s already happened in the case of Air New Zealand.
“It’s not just a fuel shortage, what’s happening is also changing the fuel price, and airlines are reacting to that as well,” says Stanton.
Are cruise vacations affected?
For the small number of cruise lines that have ships deployed to the Middle East, it’s already affecting cruise itineraries, explains Colleen McDaniel, editor-in-chief of Cruise Critic. “Celestyal, TUI and MSC Cruises, for example, have already canceled all March sailings, essentially ending their winter seasons there.”
Itineraries that include Egypt — popular for Nile River cruising — and Turkey, a staple on many Mediterranean routes, could also see changes or cancellations, depending on how the situation develops.
“Ultimately, passenger confidence could be the biggest factor in whether itineraries change,” says McDaniel. “If travelers don’t feel comfortable with certain itineraries, they’ll speak with their wallets, and cruise lines will stop offering them for the time being.”
It’s unlikely travelers will see price increases for now. However, under standard booking terms, cruise lines reserve the right to add a fuel surcharge if oil prices exceed a certain level, says McDaniel. “Even if you’ve paid in full, this could be tacked on.” The surcharge is rarely applied, but it’s a possibility.
What about rail travel. Will prices go up too?
While many governments are advising citizens to use public transit instead of driving, the cost of this could rise if the Middle East conflict continues and fuel costs increase.
“Train ticket prices are quite likely to increase,” says Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at the French bank Natixis.
Rail systems that use electric power — such as in Japan and parts of Europe — instead of traditional fuels will be less likely to be affected by the rising cost of diesel, she says.
“Some countries may subsidize initially, because there are a lot of short-distance trains that are important for working purposes and they may choose to protect those over long-distance trains.” These include local subway systems and commuter rail services rather than intercity or international lines.
Garcia Herrero points to South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines as countries that already have fuel subsidies or will introduce them soon.
I’ve already booked travel to or via the Middle East. What should I do?
If your trip is coming up very soon, then the prevailing advice is to cancel your travel plans, frustrating as that is. Many governments are cautioning their citizens against travel to most parts of the region and travel insurance may be invalid if you choose to ignore the advice (see next section).
Some airlines, particularly Middle Eastern carriers, are offering credits, rebookings or refunds. Some hotels booked directly are too. These may not be available for payments made via third-party booking websites, in which case travelers will have to rely on insurance for refunds.
Those traveling later in the year may want to hang on before canceling bookings, says Henderson from The Points Guy. The rapidly changing political situation means there’s no predicting how long the conflict will last, and things could go either way. He says he’s scheduled to travel to South Africa via Abu Dhabi on Etihad Airways later in the year and is hoping the trip goes ahead as planned.
“It’s sometimes good to try to be patient before you cancel,” he says. “A lot of times, if the airline cancels, they will rebook you, so it’s better to wait.”
Will my insurance still cover me if I travel to the Mideast?
When most of us buy travel insurance, we have general expectations of what will be covered, such as the cost of hotel rooms and new plane tickets when something out of our control derails our trip.
But as noted by GSA Global’s Moore above, most travel insurance policies exclude coverage for losses connected to military conflicts.
That means travelers planning to visit or transit through the Middle East should read the small print on their insurance policies and keep a close eye on government travel warnings.
Allianz Assistance, one of the world’s biggest travel insurance providers, said in a recent coverage alert that travel plans sold to US residents “generally do not provide coverage for any loss resulting directly or indirectly from any one or more of the following: war (declared or undeclared) or acts of war; government travel warnings or advisories; or fear of travel.” The alert also said that covered reasons under its policies “require that the insured must not have traveled against government advice.”
So, if the US State Department has issued a “Level 4: Do not travel” warning for the country you’re planning to visit, your travel insurance policy would likely be invalid.
Several countries in the Middle East fall under Level 4 now, including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria and Yemen. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have been issued “Level 3: Reconsider Travel” warnings. But remember, war-related exclusions likely still apply to your policy regardless of the government advisory level.
If you do need to travel somewhere with a Level 4 warning or are concerned about global conflicts disrupting your trip, there are insurance companies and crisis response organizations that offer specialized coverage and assistance for high-risk journeys, including Global Rescue, Battleface and Clements Worldwide.
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Jeanne Bonner, Julia Buckley, Karla Cripps, Tamara Hardingham-Gill, Lilit Marcus. Barry Neild, Maureen O’Hare and Francesca Street contributed to this story
