Fact check: Trump’s latest false, unproven, and contradictory claims about the Iran war
By Daniel Dale, CNN
(CNN) — President Donald Trump, pushing back at the suggestion that the US was responsible for a deadly strike on an elementary school in Iran, claimed at a press conference Monday that Iran has Tomahawk cruise missiles. But Trump’s claim was immediately rejected by arms experts.
There has never been an indication that Iran has any Tomahawks, which are made by US defense manufacturer Raytheon for the US military, subject to strict export controls and not the “generic” product Trump claimed Monday. Since the 1990s, a small number of US allies have been permitted by the US government to purchase them; the list includes the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands but not Israel or any other ally in the Middle East.
It certainly does not include Iran, which has been an adversary of the US since the late 1970s.
“Iran definitely does not, repeat does not, have Tomahawks,” Jeffrey Lewis, distinguished scholar of global security at Middlebury College, said in a text message Monday evening.
“Astonishing bald faced lying. Childish,” tweeted retired US Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a Trump critic, in response to the Trump claim.
Trump made the claim after a reporter told him that video footage showed “a Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girls’ school” and asked, “So will the Americans – will the US accept any responsibility?”
A video published by a semi-official Iranian news agency appears to show a US missile targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval base adjacent to the school. It has not been definitively determined who struck the school itself, but analyses by CNN and other news outlets have found the US was likely responsible.
Trump responded to the reporter: “Well, I haven’t seen it (the footage), and I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know – is sold and used by – other countries. You know that. And whether it’s Iran, who also has some Tomahawks – they wish they had more. But whether it’s Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk – a Tomahawk is very generic. It’s sold to other countries. But that’s being investigated right now.”
The US has not sold Tomahawks to Iran. Lewis said that it’s possible Trump was using the word “Tomahawk” as a generic term “like some people use ‘Kleenex,’ to mean any sort of cruise missile, but we have eyes” – and “we can clearly see,” he said, that the missile in the video “doesn’t look like an Iranian cruise missile.”
N.R. Jenzen-Jones, director of Armament Research Services, a consultancy, similarly said Monday that while Trump might have been using “Tomahawk” to refer generally to long-range cruise missiles, “a limited number of which Iran does have,” the missile the video shows striking the IRGC base near the school “is clearly a Tomahawk, rather than an Iranian design like the Soumar or Hoveyzeh.”
“Iran is not known to possess any RGM-/UGM-109 Tomahawk missiles,” Jenzen-Jones said in an email, though he emphasized he doesn’t have access to the intelligence Trump does.
If Iran had somehow obtained Tomahawks through some illicit means, that still wouldn’t mean it could use them. Jenzen-Jones said he agreed with a New York Times report Monday that said Iran “lacks the technical equipment and capabilities that are used to program their flight paths and upload that data into the missile’s onboard computer” and that “Iran would also have to be in possession of a launcher capable of firing a Tomahawk without damaging it.”
On Saturday, Trump claimed to reporters that “based on what I’ve seen,” the strike on the school “was done by Iran.” But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was standing beside Trump, refused to say yes when asked if Trump was telling the truth; Hegseth said the matter was under investigation.
When a reporter pressed Trump Monday on why he is the only person in his administration to publicly speculate that Iran might have somehow obtained a Tomahawk and conducted the strike on the school, Trump said, confusingly, “Because I just don’t know enough about it.” He said moments later, referring to the ongoing investigation, “But I will certainly – whatever the report shows, I’m willing to live with that report.”
The Strait of Hormuz matters to the US
Trump also spoke about the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil being transported from the Persian Gulf by ship. After Trump noted that the US is now offering risk insurance to oil tankers operating in the Gulf, and said “you have to keep the straits flowing,” he added, “With all of that, it affects other countries much more than it does the United States. It doesn’t really affect us. We have so much oil. We have tremendous oil and gas, much more than we need.”
It’s not true that “it doesn’t really affect us” – as many Americans filling up their gas tanks in the past week have learned. The sharp decline in traffic through the strait during the war, amid Iranian threats to attack ships that dare to cross, has been a major contributor to the sharp increase in global oil prices.
“While it is true that the US imports only modest quantities of oil from the Persian Gulf region, the broader picture is that U.S. fuel prices are inextricably tied to the global oil market. When oil prices go up, they go up for everyone – American drivers are not immune from that,” Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst at investment firm Raymond James, said in a Monday email.
Asia is certainly far more dependent on oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz than the US is. The US Energy Information Administration estimated that in 2024, 84% of the crude oil and condensate and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that went through the strait went to Asian markets.
But even aside from US gas prices, the US economy is broadly intertwined with Asian economies. An issue causing economic problems in Asian countries affects American businesses, workers and consumers, too.
Trump contradicts himself on Iran’s capabilities
As CNN’s Aaron Blake noted Monday, Trump repeatedly contradicted himself in other remarks at the press conference.
At one point, Trump claimed, “We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely,” but then claimed in the very next sentence that “most” – not all – of Iran’s naval power had been sunk. He went on to claim there had been an “over 90% decline in the Iranian missile launchers” and an “83% drop in drone launchers,” again not a total wipeout. (Definitive independent data on these claims is not available.)
Trump also said, “Look, everything they have is gone, including their leadership.” Then he said immediately after: “In fact, there are two levels of leadership – and even actually, as it turns out, more than that – but two levels of leadership are gone. Most people have never even heard about the leaders that they’re talking about.”
But Iranians and observers of the country have certainly heard of the newly appointed supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the beginning of the war. And Iran’s governing regime continues to function even after the death of Ali Khamenei and other top officials.
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