Netanyahu leans on Trump ties as Israel heads toward elections

By Tal Shalev, CNN

(CNN) — Only one image was released from Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting Wednesday: a handshake in the Oval Office, distributed by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. Beyond that single frame, there were no reporters, no statements, no spontaneous gaggle with shout-out questions

The discretion added intrigue to what was already an unusually urgent meeting, brought forward by a week at Netanyahu’s request. The US has been continuing to build up its military forces in the Middle East, even as Trump pursues negotiations with Tehran.

Trump, who rarely avoids cameras, limited his post-meeting comments to a social media post. Netanyahu’s office issued a brief readout reaffirming “the close coordination and relationship” without offering much detail.

Trump’s Truth Social statement indicated his insistence that talks continue, in an apparent contrast to Netanyahu’s long-standing opposition against any nuclear agreement and his desire to discuss plans for another strike on Iran during his trip to Washington. Whether the private setting and lack of cameras allowed both leaders to mask disagreements or rather quietly coordinate their mutual future actions remains unclear.

But even without cameras, any meeting in the Oval Office plays into Netanyahu’s immediate political needs: a domestic message, even moreso in an election year. He publicly boasts about the number of times he has met with Trump since he returned to office – seven, more than any other world leader. And every presidential encounter guarantees the story dominating the headlines for days, enabling the prime minister to dodge – even if briefly – mounting political problems at home, which caught up with him upon his return.

Elections are mandated for late-October, and Netanyahu has told his associates he aims to serve his full term. But his coalition risks fracturing in a looming crisis over the 2026 state budget, which requires approval by March 31. Failure to pass it would trigger the automatic dissolution of parliament, the Knesset, with elections typically held within 90 days – suggesting a potential June timeline for the vote.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, key partners in Netanyahu’s governing coalition, have tied their support for the budget to preserving their constituents’ longstanding exemption from mandatory military service, pressing for the passage of a divisive bill to enshrine it in law. Months of negotiations have failed to produce a compromise acceptable to both the coalition and the High Court, which has ordered enforcement against draft evasion. With no tangible compromise in sight, most political observers believe the clock is already ticking for Netanyahu’s government.

Political consultant Nevo Cohen, who previously advised far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir, projects the coalition will fracture even if the budget passes and that election will be called within weeks. “The Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) need the money, so the budget will probably pass,” Cohen said. “But they won’t get a conscription law, and on that, they’ll break the coalition. I estimate that in about a month and a half, the Knesset will dissolve.”

Cohen says a key pillars of Netanyahu’s reelection strategy is centered on his relationship with Trump, presented as proof that he is “in a different league” from competitors.

Inside Netanyahu’s Likud party, officials believe the prime minister’s decision on how to time elections is closely tied to his interactions with Trump. “Netanyahu will make his decision (on) how far he will go to save his coalition only when he returns from (visiting) Trump,” a senior Likud source said.

Netanyahu has invited Trump to Israel’s Independence Day celebrations in May to receive the prestigious Israel Prize – the first ever awarded to a non-Israeli. Trump has not yet accepted, but if he does, the source predicted that the prime minister “will want to hold elections close to the visit,” using images of the two leaders together in Jerusalem for a reelection campaign crescendo.

Ties between the two leaders may be more transactional than they appear, as a veteran Israeli political insider suggests, describing Trump and Netanyahu’s current relationship as “an implicit deal.” Trump offers public displays of support – meetings in the White House and calls to pardon Netanyahu in his corruption case – while acting independently on the US’ regional policy: advancing the Gaza ceasefire plan, restarting diplomatic contacts with Iran and pushing Israel to calm tensions in Syria. All of these are moves Netanyahu has historically resisted.

“Publicly, Trump offers him hugs and meetings by demand,” the insider said. Netanyahu, in return, refrains from criticizing moves that he would be “blasting as contrary to Israel’s interests” had any other US president made them. With Trump, the insider said, “he risks undercutting one of his central electoral assets”.

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