How Maduro’s forces are responding to US deployments in the Caribbean

By Avery Schmitz, Isa Cardona, Lou Robinson, Duncan Senkumba, CNN

(CNN) — The Venezuelan military has been actively promoting on social media its nationwide preparations to defend against a possible US offensive, as tensions with the Trump administration continue to escalate.

Experts say the new and exaggerated show of force, which included low-altitude fighter jet passes over major cities and live-fire drills off the coast, is meant to attract fresh attention to its military capabilities.

CNN analyzed Venezuelan military footage, verified social media video, and other open-source data since early September to explore how President Nicolás Maduro’s regime is flexing its comparatively modest military muscle in its standoff with the US.

Venezuela’s preparations have been met with demonstrations of US air and naval power in the Caribbean, including an “attack demo” on Thursday that featured a reconnaissance aircraft, attack plane and bomber, among other airframes.

“The US is obviously the dominant force. No surprises there,” Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN. “But we shouldn’t be cavalier.” He stressed that nobody should be underestimating Venezuela’s capabilities.

Outmatched in the Caribbean, Berg believes, this could become an existential fight for Maduro’s regime — and it’s clear that Venezuela is preparing for every possibility.

Reinforcing the capital

Caracas is actively being fortified with fresh layers of defenses, with one of the most striking developments on the outskirts of the capital, near Venezuela’s coastline in the north.

Along the Caracas-La Guaira highway, a critical route that connects the Caribbean shoreline to Caracas, an array of concrete anti-vehicle “hedgehog” barriers has been expanded.

Venezuelan authorities posted footage on October 9 from the highway, which was verified by CNN, showing dozens of concrete “hedgehog” obstacles alongside heavy machinery emblazoned with the military’s logo.

While the exact date they were installed remains unclear, recent satellite imagery shows these strategically placed obstacles near a key choke point, where armored vehicles would be forced to slow. Their location is not incidental; the narrow corridor is the only practical land route for any invading force to reach the capital, experts say.

In an address televised on the state-run network VTV on Wednesday, Maduro revealed a “comprehensive defense plan” for Caracas and La Guaira, outlining where weapons and systems could be deployed along the corridor, “street by street, community by community…”

Air defense systems

With the arrival of advanced US warplanes and drones to the Caribbean, Maduro’s armed forces are putting their air defense capabilities on full display.

Last week, footage published by a Venezuelan military unit showed a mobile Russian air defense system, the P-18-2M early warning radar used to detect incoming aircraft or munitions, deployed at a military base east of Caracas, on Isla Margarita.

Other systems were shown off during air defense drills at a military compound in the capital, including a medium-range Buk-M2E. The Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) has nearly a dozen others, all Russian-built, according to CSIS figures.

Anti-air platforms like these are critical to protecting Venezuelan airspace, but experts have questioned the condition of some. Seemingly in an attempt to dissuade concerns, one FANB unit published footage of soldiers scrubbing a shorter-range Pechora S-125 anti-air system with soap and water.

But questions remain about the combat readiness of other platforms, like the long-range S-300 surface-to-air missile systems bought by Venezuela years ago that have been notably scarce in government media and drills in recent weeks.

These developments come just weeks after a mysterious plane — sanctioned for shipping cargo to Russian allies blacklisted by the US — landed in the capital.

While it remains unclear what was delivered, Russian Duma member Alexei Zhuravlev claims it transported new Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defense systems to Caracas, in an interview with Gazeta.ru. The delivery may have also included modern missiles that would notably strengthen Venezuela’s air defense network, retired U.S. Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian told CNN.

CNN has reached out to the Venezuelan Defense Ministry about the flight.

Live-fire drills and troop movements

At the Venezuelan Military Academy in southern Caracas, members of the armed forces practice small drone attacks with the help of a popular video game, seen in footage published by the Venezuelan Army. “The second commander destroyed it…” one of the soldiers says, crowding the cadet holding a controller. “We’re here waiting to advance, come closer!”

With the makeshift simulator, Venezuelan soldiers train amid a wider effort to ratchet up force readiness across the country.

On another simulated battlefield, footage shared by a FANB commander shows Venezuelan troops running live-fire training drills near an uninhabited island less than 25 miles from where US warships recently docked in Trinidad and Tobago.

Nationwide enlistment drives began in August, when Maduro called for volunteers to join the Bolivarian militia to strengthen the country’s defenses. The militia, a reserve force composed of civilians, is a branch in the Venezuelan Armed Forces.

While the conventional military has approximately 123,000 members, Maduro has claimed the volunteer militia has grown to 8 million, though experts have called into question that number as well as the quality of the troops’ training.

Air power on display

Far from munitions testing grounds and training facilities, civilians in Venezuela are watching the Maduro regime showcase its air power.

In downtown Maracay, one of Venezuela’s largest cities, pedestrians looked up to see F-16 fighter jets roaring over museums and shopping centers; and on the luxurious Isla Margarita, Russian-made Su-30 warplanes passed overhead.

The seven warplanes seen here account for about 20% of Venezuela’s combat aircraft, according to data published by CSIS. Without access to spare parts and regular maintenance, Berg explained, they’re “utilizing precious flight hours… to demonstrate [Venezuelan air power].”

The country’s air force is small, with most airworthy attack planes being Russian-made Su-30 jets, among a few F-16 and F-5 fighters bought from the US decades ago, which could face a formidable US presence in the Caribbean.

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CNN’s Thomas Bordeaux and Stefano Pozzebon contributed to this report.