Texas Hill Country faces rising flash flood risk as storms stall, dumping torrential rain on vulnerable communities

By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman

(CNN) — A dangerous setup is taking shape across the Texas Hill Country overnight as thunderstorms start to dump torrential rain. A Level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place Thursday for about 75,000 people in this region.

Shortly after midnight local time, strong thunderstorms began stalling over northwestern Kerr County at the headwater forks of the Guadalupe River, upstream from where more than 100 people died in July after extreme rainfall triggered a surge of floodwater on local rivers.

This forecast isn’t as dire as July’s, but confidence is increasing that more than 5 inches of rain could fall in some locations Thursday. Rainfall rates could approach a torrential 3 inches per hour at times during the heaviest rain.

The National Weather Service issued a Flood Warning for the Guadalupe River near the Kerr County community of Hunt, about 80 miles northwest of San Antonio, through Thursday evening, alerting residents that rising water from the stalling storms may push the river out of its banks and cause moderate flooding. The warning was cancelled after storms moved out of the area early Thursday morning, but the river is still expected to rise to over 9 feet, or just below flood stage.

Portions of Gillespie and Val Verde Counties could also see flash flooding during the early morning hours on Thursday. The National Weather Service is monitoring radar for high rainfall rates and advises residents of these counties to stay weather aware.

The higher-end flash flood threat peaks after sunrise, when weather models predict a second round of storms will develop over a similar area. These storms could “train,” or line up and move over the same spot one after another, like train cars on a railroad track.

The Hill Country’s terrain makes torrential rain especially dangerous. Narrow canyons and fast-responding creeks can’t handle a few hours of training storms, let alone as much as 5 inches over a short time.

Rainfall this heavy is usually confined to the summer months, but ongoing unseasonable heat in the South is raising the bar on how much moisture these storms could wring out of the atmosphere.

If you’re in the Hill Country, keep phones charged and alerts on. Low-water crossings will become hazardous quickly during the pre-dawn hours.

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CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert contributed to this report.