As Washington weighs options on Venezuela, US invasion of Panama offers an imperfect blueprint for military action

By Patrick Oppmann, CNN

Havana (CNN) — A Latin American strongman accused of drug trafficking and rigging elections openly defies the White House despite threats of military action.

It was 1989 and the then military dictator of Panama Manuel Noriega, much like Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro today, had become public enemy number one in Washington, amid allegations that he took millions of dollars to allow drug cartels to operate in his country.

The US invasion of Panama led to Noriega’s capture and restored democracy to the Central American nation.

To some pushing for military action against Maduro, the Panama invasion seems like a model – however imperfect – for what the US is trying to accomplish in Venezuela.

“Bush 41 took Panamanian leader Noriega down under similar circumstances,” Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) posted on X Thursday.

“There is a drug caliphate in our backyard that includes Venezuela, Colombia and Cuba. I am very glad President Trump is dedicated to ending this reign of terror,” he added.

Officials from all three countries have denied any ties to trafficking.

Unlike Maduro, a committed socialist and longtime thorn in the side of US foreign policy aims in the region, Noriega, at least initially, presented himself as a US ally.

Through much of his bloody rise to power in Panama – the small but geopolitically key country with its canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – Noriega was a CIA asset, assisting to stamp out the spread of leftist governments in Latin America.

But as CIA arms flowed through Panama to support anti-communist rebels in Central America, Noriega had a secret: He was also allowing tons of cocaine to pass north to the US.

Noriega’s fungible loyalties led former US Ambassador to Panama Ambler Moss to declare of the Panamanian dictator, “You can’t buy him, but you can sure as hell rent him.”

By 1989 Noriega’s double dealing and brutal crackdown on civil society led to Washington issuing an ultimatum: Go into exile or else.

Like Maduro today – who vehemently denies US allegations of drug trafficking – Noriega had to choose whether to flee or face off with a military far superior to his own.

Initially, retired Panamanian General Rubén Darío Paredes told CNN, Noriega opted for exile.

“He began making arrangements for the succession of command according to the hierarchy, but he had a moment of weakness,” Paredes said. “When many of that group who had been exposed began to think about their fate, right? They were exposed, and they made common cause and convinced Noriega that he was the ultimate authority, that there was no turning back. Then Noriega backed down and that’s when the invasion happened.”

Facing Noriega’s defiance and worsening repression, US President George H.W. Bush ordered the invasion of Panama – codenamed “Operation Just Cause” – in December 1989, arguing Noriega’s rule posed a threat to US lives and security.

With more than 20,000 US troops on Panamanian soil, Noriega took refuge in the Vatican’s embassy in Panama City for 10 days. US troops surrounded the compound with loudspeakers blasting his hideout with deafening heavy metal music through the night.

Noriega eventually surrendered to US Drug Enforcement Administration officials on January 3, 1990.

His trial in 1991 was called the “trial of the century” by the DEA and eventually saw him found guilty on eight counts and sentenced to 40 years in jail.

While taking down a repressive leader with ties to drug cartels – Maduro also faces a US indictment for trafficking – seems identical to US’ goals in Venezuela, there are important differences.

Panama in 1989, when the US invasion took place, only had a population of 2.5 million, Venezuela’s population today is over 28 million.

Venezuela’s land mass is more than ten times the size of Panama – which, at the time of the invasion, hosted US military bases.

Moreover, as with Noriega when he considered exile, many in Maduro’s inner circle face US trafficking allegations or million-dollar rewards for their capture, making them unlikely to see him leave power without a fight.

Finally, any US military action in Venezuela would likely have to contend with the country’s impenetrable jungles and dense slums, where gang members are so heavily armed that even the Venezuelan military rarely enters.

Frank Mora, former US Ambassador at the organization of American states OAS who has studied how a possible US invasion could unfold and the hurdles the US military faces in deposing Maduro, said the US could topple the Venezuelan leader easily but keeping the peace is another matter.

“The question of Venezuelan military capability is not a serious one,” Mora said. “It’s not one that could sustain a US invasion, but my concern has always been, it’s not just the time that it requires to bring down the regime, it’s the day after, and how do you maintain order in a country that has essentially collapsed?”

While it remains unclear if the US will put any boots on the ground or even carry out strikes in Venezuela, increasingly it appears the US will not count on the support of many regional allies.

At a news conference on Thursday, Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, who publicly opposed the Noriega dictatorship before the US invasion, said his country would not host any US forces that might take part in a military action against Venezuela.

“In relation to Venezuela we don’t have anything to do with that,” Mulino said. “Panama is not lending its territory for any hostile act against Venezuela or another country in the world.”

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CNN’s Elizabeth González contributed reporting from Panama.