The US economy lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September
By Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — Private payrolls plunged in September, complicating the picture for the US economy as policymakers and investors struggle to assess the state of the labor market amid a government shutdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to release the monthly jobs report this Friday due to the closure. That means many flying blind without critical economic data are having to key into any information they can get, including Wednesday’s private sector jobs data from payroll company ADP.
US private-sector businesses lost 32,000 jobs in September, according to the report. August’s previously estimated 54,000 payroll gains were downwardly revised to negative 3,000.
However, ADP’s latest numbers come with some big caveats: A preliminary “rebenchmarking” of the data was a significant factor behind the negative August revision and September’s estimated job losses, ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson said Wednesday.
“We found that once we benchmarked that data, it actually shows a September slowdown that has been consistent with what we’ve been reporting all year,” Richardson told reporters Wednesday, noting the process resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September, compared to pre-benchmarked data.
“In fact, though the numbers changed, the story and the narrative and the trend remain the same: Hiring momentum has slowed from the beginning of the year through September,” she added.
Similar to the BLS’s two-step annual process, ADP recalibrates its estimates annually to the full-year 2024 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The report provides a more comprehensive read on the number of businesses, employees and wages at the state, regional and county level because it derives that data from quarterly tax reports submitted by businesses to their states. However, the QCEW is heavily lagged.
A low-turnover environment
September’s estimated job gains, which ADP tabulated using anonymized and aggregated payroll data from its clients, came in well below economists’ expectations for 50,000 jobs added.
Small private-sector businesses drove last month’s decline, and losses were widespread across industries (with some of the largest losses in professional and business services and leisure and hospitality), ADP reported. The bulk of the hiring occurred at health care businesses, which have been the sole source of consistent employment growth this year.
While ADP’s estimates don’t often correlate with the official monthly jobs numbers when they’re released days later — and have been frequently criticized by economists for having a poor track record in making short-term predictions — the report is still considered an indicator of the labor market’s trajectory.
And that outlook has been looking increasingly bleak. In addition to the private-sector job losses, the latest (and last-for-now) release from the BLS showed that the US labor market activity has grown increasingly stagnant.
The BLS’ jobs report for August showed that the economy added an estimated 22,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly four years. The report also showed that prior job gains were not just weaker than expected, they went negative in June.
All told, it reaffirmed that the US labor market is slowing and at risk of stalling out.
Excluding the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, the hiring rate (hires as a percentage of total employment) fell in August to 3.2%, matching the lowest rate since 2013, according to the BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report released Tuesday.
Job gains were expected to pick up in September, however. Economists’ forecasts called for a net gain of 50,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.3%.
US stocks were broadly lower Wednesday in response to uncertainty around the government shutdown and remained at similar levels after the report was released.
The Federal Reserve may not have all of the labor market indicators it typically would have in its quiver; however, the lack of a monthly jobs report should not preclude the central bank from cutting interest rates further at the end of this month, economists say.
The condition of the US labor market supports another quarter-point cut, Joe Brusuelas, economist at RSM US, wrote in a note to investors on Wednesday.
“Hiring is at risk as policy uncertainty driven by trade and immigration policy as well as long term demographic challenges that are adversely impacting the availability of labor supply,” he wrote. “Given that the government shutdown and threats of mass firings permeate the latest edition of the fiscal follies, this is all not conducive to the October payroll outlook.”
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