Moldova’s election delivers lessons to Europe on countering Russian interference

By Tim Lister, CNN, Kosta Gak

(CNN) — The victory of a pro-European party in Moldova’s parliamentary elections was a litmus test in the former Soviet nation, where Russian interference and disinformation campaigns have spent millions in a bid to prevent the country from joining the European mainstream.

The governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) easily defeated a challenge by the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc. Although its margin of victory was far lower than four years ago, the PAS still won just over 50% of the vote –- putting Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, one step closer to joining the European Union.

Two years ago, a PAS victory looked far less likely amid widespread protests against higher energy prices and other bread-and-butter issues. But its triumph on Sunday brought with it a few takeaways for Europe as a whole.

The stakes were high. Just before the election, the European Council on Foreign Relations called the vote a stress test for European resilience. “Empowered Kremlin-linked parties or blocs would create a direct security risk on Ukraine’s southwest border and provide a central base from which Russia can operate against EU countries,” it said.

Poland, Germany and France said in a joint statement Monday that there had been “unprecedented interference by Russia, including with vote-buying schemes and disinformation.”

Addressing the Moldovan people and President Maia Sandu, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X: “You have also stopped Russia in its attempts to take control over the whole region. A good lesson for us all.”

That lesson: the impact of the EU’s economic support as US interest waned and of extensive cooperation with Moldova against Russian-backed disinformation campaigns.

Over the past several years, Europe and the US have provided funds to the government as it faced protests on energy tariffs and inflation and an economic downturn.

In 2023, USAID announced $300 million in aid to improve Moldova’s energy security in the face of what the US embassy called “the Kremlin’s longstanding attempts to weaponize energy to undermine Moldova’s independence.”

However, the Trump administration’s cuts to USAID funding essentially froze nearly $500 million in aid, leaving Europe to pick up the slack, which it did. Moldova is set to receive more than $2 billion in aid from the EU between 2025 and 2027, a critical injection of funds designed in part to “strengthen its energy independence from Russia,” according to Brussels.

The timing was also critical, with the pro-Europe government lagging in polls amid a rise in poverty levels and a sharp decline in Moldova’s GDP.

Additionally – with European support – the Moldovan authorities have run a robust campaign against Russian influence.

This year, the EU deployed what it called a Hybrid Rapid Response Team to support Moldova against foreign interference and gave the government access to the EU Cybersecurity Reserve. It also created a regional hub of the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) to focus on Russian disinformation in Moldova and elsewhere.

In June, the EU brought together representatives from Google, Meta and TikTok with Moldovan officials and civil society groups to identify disinformation campaigns. Moldova’s security service subsequently identified AI-generated fake profiles spreading coordinated propaganda across Facebook, Telegram and TikTok.

Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, said over the weekend that last year “French intelligence services reached out to me through an intermediary, asking me to help the Moldovan government censor certain Telegram channels ahead of the presidential elections in Moldova.”

He said that in return he’d been told that “French intelligence would ‘say good things’ about me to the judge who had ordered my arrest.”

The French Foreign Ministry responded Monday that Durov “likes making accusations while elections are ongoing. After Romania, Moldova.”

The Moldovan government has also moved against pro-Russian groups. Two years ago, a pro-Russian party headed by Ilan Shor was banned. Shor is a businessman with links to Russia who was accused of stealing billions of dollars from Moldovan banks in 2014. He was convicted of fraud but denied any wrongdoing.

Last week, authorities detained more than 70 people and seized passports, cash and weapons in connection with an alleged plot to cause unrest. The investigation, which included some 250 raids across the country, was led by a special prosecutors’ office with close links to European agencies.

EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos said the Moldovan government had “proven to be resilient and capable of fighting back the forces that would like to see this country going away from the European path.”

For its part, the Kremlin Monday accused Moldovan authorities of stifling the opposition’s support, alleging there were too few polling stations for Moldovans living in Russia.

“This isn’t about Russia trying to influence anyone; it’s about the discontent of a huge portion of the Moldovan population over not being given the right to vote in elections,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week.

And voting in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, where more than 1,000 Russian troops are based, was impeded when the election commission closed four polling stations due to “possible destabilization” and threats. The opposition claimed Monday that at least 200,000 people had been prevented from voting.

The PAS win will hardly put a stop to Russian influence operations.

Two years ago, CNN reported on a secret plan drawn up by Russia’s security service, the FSB, laying out detailed options to destabilize Moldova – including supporting pro-Russian groups, utilizing the Orthodox Church and threatening to cut off supplies of natural gas.

The document set out a 10-year strategy for bringing Moldova within Russia’s sphere of influence and appeared to have been written in 2021 by the FSB’s Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation.

It set out goals including “opposition to the expansionist policy of Romania,” Moldova’s neighbor, and opposition to Moldovan cooperation with NATO, as well as the “creation of stable pro-Russian groups of influence” in Moldova.

But this election has shown there are strong currents in Moldova against a retreat into Russia’s orbit. There was high turn-out among the Moldovan diaspora – about a third of eligible voters – who are very likely more pro-Europe than older, poorer parts of the population at home.

Younger Moldovans are also more pro-European, as evidenced by in the way they turned out for the referendum last year on whether Moldova should pursue membership of acceding to the EU.

As in neighboring Ukraine and in Georgia, another former Soviet republic, the struggle between Russia’s steel embrace and a future closer to Europe will continue.

The-CNN-Wire
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