Clock ticking for the Southeast as next tropical threat looms, with US impacts likely by Monday
By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman
(CNN) — More tropical trouble is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean, with the National Hurricane Center now on high alert for the formation of a new storm that will join Hurricane Humberto. But unlike Humberto, this one could go on to directly impact the United States and leave little time to prepare.
Right now, it’s a powerful cluster of thunderstorms drenching Hispaniola with heavy rain and gusty winds, but it’s likely to become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Imelda as it moves toward the Bahamas this weekend.
If this new system organizes and then takes aim at the Southeast US, landfall could come as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Even if it doesn’t make landfall, there’s concern for a flood threat from a storm that could put on the brakes as it nears the coast.
Meanwhile, Humberto strengthened into a hurricane early Friday morning as it drifted over warm water and a less hostile environment in the central Atlantic. It is not a direct threat to the US, but it could rapidly intensify and grow into a Category 3 or greater major hurricane this weekend as it tracks northwest, most likely staying west of Bermuda by early next week.
Humberto’s size and position could influence how future Imelda develops, how quickly it moves and where it tracks.
A weaker, slower storm could be tugged harmlessly out to sea by Humberto, while a stronger, faster Imelda might resist that pull and take a path toward the Southeast coast. If the two storms get close enough, they could even circle each other in a phenomenon called the Fujiwhara effect – though that scenario looks less likely now than earlier this week.
So much depends on the strength, size and forward speed of these two storms, all of which are still to be determined.
Either way, the chance for some impact to the Southeast has increased since Thursday.
What to prepare for now
The Carolinas have the highest odds for landfall from the future storm, and the most significant impacts, but slight shifts in Humberto’s track or the jet stream dipping over the East Coast could change the outcome dramatically.
Even if the US escapes a landfall completely, tropical moisture could still funnel into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, fueling heavy rain and a serious flood risk. Coastal flooding from storm surge, beach erosion and strong coastal winds would also be threats regardless of a landfall.
Beaches all along the Eastern seaboard will be plagued by life-threatening rip currents and large swells for much of next week because of Humberto spinning offshore and future Imelda.
A new concerning scenario has also emerged where Imelda races toward the Southeast coast and then gets trapped there by the weather pattern, wringing out soaking rain over parts of the Southeast for days on end.
If that happens, widespread flooding is possible, with swollen rivers and streams that could take days to recede. The combination of tropical moisture and a stalled weather pattern is the exact recipe for some of the Southeast’s most damaging flood events.
Anyone from the Bahamas to the US East Coast will need to keep a close eye on the forecast in the coming days for what’s likely to be Imelda as rain, wind and storm surge threats come into better focus. This homegrown storm will leave a very narrow window to prepare.
The-CNN-Wire
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