Calm Tuesday Before Powerful Storm
Life-threatening weather on the way!
Tuesday will be dry and tranquil. This will be a good day to prepare for the storm to come with widespread wind and rain impacts returning Wednesday. A potent storm system packed with a deep stream of moisture will begin impacting our area Wednesday morning. Expect constant moderate rain in the coastal mountains Wednesday enhanced by a frontal system late Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding looks likely on creeks and streams in Santa Cruz County and on the Big Sur Coast. It will be possible in many other low areas. If that weren’t enough, a long period wind event will also begin on Wednesday morning and could last all the way until Thursday morning. Sustained winds of 30-50mph likely for the exposed coast and ridges, with gusts over 60mph possible. Due to recent rains causing saturated soils and drought-stressed trees, it is even more likely that we will see trees down with blocked roads, power outages, and property damage. More rain is then possible this weekend with weaker systems moving through, the storm door will remain open through next week.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Tuesday: Some lingering clouds otherwise, mostly sunny, dry, and slightly cool with highs in the 50s to around 60ºF. Increasing clouds late.
***GALE WARNING***
…in effect from 3am Wednesday to 9am Thursday for coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos
California out to 10 nm and Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10 nm. Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 14 ft expected.
…in effect from 3pm Wednesday to 3am Thursday for the Monterey Bay. Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.
* Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the entire KION coverage area in effect from 4am Wednesday to 10am Thursday.
*Southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible in valley locations. 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible for mountain areas. Local gusts to around 70 mph possible.
*Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Falling trees cause a significant threat to life and property. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… for the entire KION coverage area from late Tuesday night through Thursday.
A potent Pineapple Express will move into the region Wednesday and continue into Thursday. This will bring substantial rainfall to the Bay Area and Monterey Bay region on top of already saturated soils. As a result look for rapid rises in area creeks, streams, and rivers. Bankfull exceedance is possible. In addition strong gusty winds will bring branches and trees down, which may cause localized damming of water ways. Rain will taper by Thursday afternoon, allowing for rivers to level off and begin to lower.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are
possible.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Increasing clouds, with light widespread rain starting around midnight. Mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. South to southeast winds will become stronger with gusts near 20mph, and rain becoming moderate at times heading into sunrise.
Wednesday: Stormy, with strong southerly winds, and moderate to heavy rain. Down trees, power outages, flooding, and debris flows are likely. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Extended: The active weather pattern continues mid-week with a more potent storm system arriving. Light to moderate rain is likely in the coastal mountains for most of the day Wednesday with increasing southerly winds, then expect a period of moderate to heavy rain with gusty winds overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding will be possible along with power outages. Additional, weaker systems will follow into the weekend.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 9th – 15th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña continues through winter, becomes neutral by Spring
-Area drought status: “Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”
