Edge Of The Fire Hose
Rain is coming, I promise! The weak to moderate atmospheric river that has been stalled just to our north for the past couple of days will add moisture and a stronger storm system on Monday. Rain & wind will pick up on Monday night and then the slow-moving system will impact us through Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon with heavy rain and gusty southerly winds. Minor flooding is likely with expected rain rates and duration. Some creek flooding may also be possible, though our major rivers will handle the flow.
Preliminary Mon/Tue rainfall estimates:
Coastal Mountains: 4-8”
Santa Cruz Coast: 1.5-3”
Monterey Peninsula/Salinas: 1-2”
Northern Inland Valleys: 1.5-3”
Southern Inland Valleys: 0.5”-1.5”
Air Quality: Good
Overnight: Mostly cloudy on the coast and in the north with occasional drizzle/light rain possible. Dry and partly cloudy for the inland south. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s on the coast and 30s-40s inland. Light southerly flow.
Monday: Increasing clouds and increasing southerly winds. A few light showers/sprinkles possible along the coast and in the coastal mountains during the day, then rain becoming more likely late, especially in the north. Highs in the low to mid-60s for most areas, 50s for Santa Cruz County.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties in effect from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday night.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
*The next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Monday into Tuesday which will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Tuesday: Widespread rain, heavy at times in the coastal mountains. Street flooding and flooding of low areas very possible. Minor creek/stream flooding possible. Gusty southerly winds at times with isolated wind damage possible, peaking mid to late afternoon. High sin the upper 50s to low 60s.
Extended: Rain tapers off with a few lingering showers in to Wednesday morning. Skies will break to partly cloudy on the back side of the system and temperatures will cool a bit. A trailing system will be here on Thursday and could bring briefly heavy rain and gusty winds once again. This is a fast-moving system, but also a cold one. Mountain snow is looking very possible and we’ll have to watch for thunderstorm chances. Skies clear out for the weekend which will likely mean COLD mornings with frost being a concern.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 10th – 18th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for the eastern valleys of San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County, abnormally dry for the rest of the KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 3rd : 53.9ºF (avg of 8 buoys) [January Average: 54.9ºF]
