Rain Ends, Waves Arrive
Well, it’s here. The storm season is back. Our weather pattern will remain active for at least the next week with several weather systems moving through. These systems will be cold and lacking deep moisture plumes, so flooding isn’t on the table. Still, unsettled conditions will prevail. The next system arrives late Wednesday as we catch the tail end of a dying cold front which will then be followed by a couple more days of unsettled weather as the parent trough settles in. More in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Overnight: Partly cloudy with low clouds and patchy fog. Breezy northerly winds over the hills. Expect lows in the low to mid-40s on the coast and mid-30s to mid-40s inland.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect from 6AM Tuesday until 6AM Wednesday
*Large breaking waves upwards of 14 to 15 ft.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Northwest facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Tuesday: Patchy low clouds and fog early, then mostly sunny throughout the day with just a few high clouds passing through. Cool, with coastal highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s and low to mid-60s for inland valleys. Breezy north-northwesterly winds on the exposed coast and over the hills.
Wednesday: Mostly clear and chilly early with patchy fog in sheltered areas. Then, increasing clouds throughout the day with a chance of light rain mainly in the north and near the coast late. Continued cool with highs mainly in the upper 50s to mid-60s. A few southern valleys may make it into the upper 60s. Breezy up-valley winds in the afternoon and evening.
Extended: A deep and cold trough of low pressure will dig in over the West Coast for Thursday through early Saturday. The atmosphere is likely to be unstable which will support rounds of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms—t-storms look mostly likely early Friday if at all. Cool temperatures and occasionally gusty winds will continue through the period. We’ll likely get a break for the rest of Saturday until the next fast-moving front follows late Sunday into Monday where more rain & wind will be possible.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 19th – 25th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 12th : 53.6ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
