Human-caused climate change likely to supercharge El Niño, report says

By Molly McCrea

The naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere climate event known as El Niño is again bringing warmer weather throughout the world.

But according to new research published in the journal “Science,” there is growing evidence that human-caused climate change is already making El Niño stronger.

Global sea surface levels have reached record highs, scientists say.

“The record ocean temperature that we see right now is a combination of background level of warming, so the ocean in general has warmed about 0.8 degrees Celsius from human-induced climate change, and then we’ve got this boost from the El Niño event,” said Dr. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, calling the record temperatures a red flag.

“This is yet another sign of our climate system under strain and the ocean under immense pressure” Burgess said. “Corals, as well as most marine organisms, get incredibly stressed when the water environment is too hot for them. It also leads to fish mortality because a warmer ocean carries less nutrients and less oxygen.”

The waters off the California coast are also breaking heat records.

“The ocean off the coast of Southern California and the west coast of Mexico is the warmest it has ever been in recorded history,” said climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain, a research partner at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Swain is also the founder of Weather West which provides real-time perspectives on California weather and climate.

“The warmth we’re seeing right now is the combined effect of a pre-existing marine heatwave unrelated to El Niño, plus the effect now increasingly of this very strong El Niño event, and on top of that we have this long-term warming from human-caused climate change,” Swain said. “So, the ocean is record warm.”

The danger is not just to marine life.

Dr. Claire Bergin, climate scientist with the Icarus Climate Research Center at Ireland’s Maynooth University, says the danger is not just to marine life.

“This is concerning on a number of levels not just for marine life but for its impact on human communities,” Bergin said.

Swain said the primary impacts of El Niño on California weather are expected to ramp up in late November and December and could continue through March 2027.

It’s recommended that residents prepare for potential flooding and heavy rain. That includes clearing gutters and downspouts, checking the roof, securing the yard, and stocking emergency gear including flashlights, and extra batteries. Residents of flood-prone areas are advised to keep sandbags, plastic sheeting, and a small shovel on hand.