UC Berkeley criminal justice professor discusses Oakland crime data

By Andrea Nakano

With several high-profile shootings in Oakland this year, it may be hard for some to believe that the city is seeing a sharp decline in violent crime, but according to Oakland Police data, crime has dropped in many of the categories, including murder and robbery.

In 2023, there was a total of 114 murders in the city, 75 in 2024, to just below 60 by the start of December this year.

UC Berkeley criminal justice professor Jonathan Simon believes the 2023 numbers can be directly connected to COVID.

“From a sociological point of view, we never came to grips with what a big impact that had on our society,” said Professor Simon.

“I think people were incredibly demoralized is an accurate term. Society kind of failed them, their jobs were maybe over. Their schools weren’t working,” Simon said. 

Robberies have also seen a decline. 

For the last decade, there have been at least 2000 robbery cases reported every year. So far this year, the number stands at around 1550. 

“Criminologists are never really happy with police reporting as the main way to measure crime because we know that there are many factors that prevent people from reporting,” said Professor Simon. “To police frustration, mistrust of police etc. The gold standard approach is to do surveys.”

While the numbers are going down, Professor Simon said he wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick again in the coming years. That uptick may be small, but the spotlight on certain crimes in certain cities may be driving the perception of crime in their communities.

“We have a national political discourse now that makes urban crime a partisan issue, sadly,” he said. “Depending on where people get their news, what social media they are paying attention to. The idea that our cities are hellscapes of crime gets a lot of attention.”