California nonprofit predicts 26% jump in ACA health insurance premiums next year
By CBS Bay Area
KFF, a nonprofit health policy organization founded in San Francisco, has released new data predicting a 26% increase in health insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act coverage next year.
Many Bay Area residents are already anticipating the pressure on their wallets for health care coverage.
“2020, you can see I was paying $684.24 per month. $8,200 a year, approximately,” David Dreiling, who works in Napa, told CBS News Bay Area. “2024, now I’m over $10,500 for health insurance.
“This year, 2025, I lowered my plan because the monthly premiums were getting so high,” he added.
He shared that he’s paying about $755 a month, which comes with a higher deductible. That was a decision he was reminded of from a recent trip to the emergency room.
“I had three stitches put into my finger. So, the three stitches cost me $1,600. Shouldn’t have done it. Should have done it from home,” Dreiling said.
He said he had already enrolled for his health care coverage for 2026, sharing that he will be paying about $80 more each month.
His reality is the reality of millions of Americans in the coming months.
“One large factor that is driving this is the expiration of these tax credits,” Matt McGough, a policy analyst with KFF, told CBS News Bay Area.
He added that other factors will be driving up insurance premiums across all coverages.
“Driven by providers asking to be paid more by insurers, the increase in high-cost drugs such as Ozempic, as well as medical inflation that occurs year to year,” McGough said.
If the enhanced premium tax credits expire, KFF analysts said those insured will have to pay about 114% more than what they pay now. About 22 million of 24 million people in the Affordable Care Act marketplace are receiving the tax credits for their health insurance.
“We would expect that a large portion of these enrollees will drop off, and the uninsured rates will increase in the United States as a result. Additionally, people who decided to stay on the Affordable Care marketplace will be seeing what they paid toward their premiums increase drastically,” he said.
According to the California Health Care Foundation, Covered California estimates that 660,000 customers will drop coverage if the enhanced subsidies expire.
“Unfortunately, the reality is right now, a lot of people are going to have no better option than to just pay more towards their health insurance premiums on their marketplaces. That doesn’t necessarily mean you shouldn’t search for a lower-cost option. Always do that on Covered California or Healthcare.gov, see if there’s a plan that works for you that’s lower cost. Think about dropping to a bronze metal tier plan, which has a lower monthly premium,” McGough added.
And that is what business owners like Dreiling had to do to afford the care he needs for his health conditions.
“It has been getting tighter and tighter as the years go on,” Dreiling said.
As a Farmers Insurance agent in Napa, Dreiling is trying to look at the bright side of things.
“It could be worse. It’s getting worse, but that’s how you kind of go day to day,” he said.
