Prices stable, incentives available, more homes coming: Is this the calm before the buying surge?

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Prices stable, incentives available, more homes coming: Is this the calm before the buying surge?

Each month, NewHomeSource parent company Zonda surveys homebuilders to understand current trends and market sentiment. While these surveys are primarily focused on builders’ business conditions, they also offer clues for homebuyers about what’s happening — and what could be coming — in the housing market.

Below are three takeaways from the September responses that buyers should know.

Lower mortgage rates aren’t moving the needle. Interest rates dipped slightly in September, coming close to 6%, before increasing to around 6.3% to end the month. Builders report the small decrease hasn’t noticeably increased buyer traffic or demand. Many builders are still offering mortgage rate buydowns — discounts that can lower a buyer’s interest rate by more than a full percentage point in some cases. Even these incentives aren’t pulling some hesitant buyers off the sidelines. Economic uncertainty and job instability are keeping many would-be buyers cautious, regardless of the small changes in interest rates.

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Tariffs are not a top concern. Tariffs have the potential to affect material costs, which could lead to higher home prices. However, September’s survey shows that builders haven’t seen significant impacts yet. Most report the total cost of building a home has remained relatively stable.

Stability is good news for buyers. Prices aren’t rising due to material costs right now, and many builders are cutting prices to help find the market. However, buyers should keep a close eye on tariffs, as they may begin to impact construction costs and home prices in 2026.

Housing starts are expected to be flat or marginally higher in 2026. While single-family starts are expected to finish 2025 lower than 2024, nearly half of the builders surveyed by Zonda plan to increase housing starts in 2026. The projected increase is largely due to rising community count. Community count — defined as communities with five or more homes for sale — has increased for nine consecutive months, a trend builders expect to continue into 2026. For buyers in production home markets, this could mean more options will be hitting the market in the next eight to 12 months.

Bottom Line

Rates and prices remain steady, incentives are still in play, and new inventory could be on the horizon. For buyers, especially those looking at new construction, that’s a landscape worth watching.

This story was produced by NewHomeSource and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.