A ‘full-fledged’ nor’easter could hit the East Coast in the coming days. Two scenarios are possible

By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN

(CNN) — A nor’easter is about to develop off the Southeast coast and this coastal storm could bring some serious threats along with dreary weather for much of the East Coast into early next week.

It all starts with a potent cold front that’s swinging east over the United States this week and delivering crisp, truly autumnal weather in its wake. That front will eventually slow down and stall once it reaches the Southeast at the end of the week.

The nor’easter is expected to develop along that stalled front on Saturday just off the Southeast coast and will likely churn up seas, deliver drenching coastal rain and whip up gusty winds from Florida through the Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Northeast. It could turn out to be a “full-fledged” and “rather significant” nor’easter, the Weather Prediction Center warned.

A nor’easter is just a coastal storm named based on the direction from which its winds slam into the coast: northeast. Nor’easters are notorious snow producers in winter, but they can happen at any time of year, bringing heavy rain instead. They’re most frequent between September and April and usually develop between Georgia and New Jersey. The strongest nor’easters are also being supercharged by planet-warming fossil fuel pollution, a July study found.

The upcoming nor’easter’s wind and rain look to pack a punch but it’s still unclear exactly how far north it will track up the coast and how long it will loiter. A lingering storm would mean days of heavy rain, wind and coastal flooding.

Regardless of how long it hugs the coast, the nor’easter will also drive rough surf that could make swimming dangerous for hundreds of miles of coastline and further contribute to ongoing beach erosion in North Carolina. At least seven unoccupied homes in Buxton, North Carolina, have collapsed into the Atlantic since September 30 due to intense wave action and erosion from recent storms.

There are two scenarios that could unfold with the forecast as things stand.

In one scenario, the nor’easter develops on Saturday somewhere off the coast between Florida and South Carolina and strengthens on Sunday while staying quite close to the coast of the Carolinas. The storm then creeps north into more of the mid-Atlantic and lingers there through at least Tuesday, bringing up to half a foot of rain and gusty winds.

Another scenario has the nor’easter developing in a similar spot on Saturday and strengthening Sunday as it travels north to the North Carolina coast. It then tracks farther north, limiting the number of days the storm roughs up the Southeast coast, but bringing more rain, wind and choppy seas to the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

It should soon become clear which scenario will win out, but regardless, anywhere from the Southeast to the Northeast should expect a stormy few days.

So far, North Carolina to New Jersey look to bear the brunt of the storm’s disruptions.

Several inches of rain are possible from Friday into early next week from eastern North Carolina to central New Jersey. Parts of the Outer Banks and southern Virginia could record close to 6 inches of rain in just a few days, especially if the storm stalls. Localized flash flooding is possible in any areas caught under this drenching rain.

Winds will whip along the coast starting Friday, maxing out later Saturday into Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible for the Outer Banks and coastal areas north into New Jersey. Gusts of 20 to 40 mph are possible for areas farther in from the coast in this stretch.

A multi-day coastal flooding event could also unfold from the Outer Banks and north with tide levels later this week and this weekend just shy of their highest marks of the month.

After the storm either moves away from the coast or completely dissipates, the East could get a brief reprieve from the dreary weather. Then, yet another batch of unseasonable heat is expected to set in by late next week.

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CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman contributed to this report.