Weak System Friday is Round One of another Series of Storms
The weak cold front, associated with a system well to the northwest of us, will move through late Friday morning/early afternoon bringing mainly light to moderate rain with rounds of showers through the day. A second and stronger front is expected Saturday. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected. There will be a little pause between storms, before system number three passes through Sunday into Monday. This one looks to pack more of a punch as the cold core low moves down the coast bringing additional moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and the chance of thunderstorms.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
**FLOOD WARNING***
… for the Salinas River from around Soledad to Monterey Bay from now until further notice
Minor flooding is occurring for the Salinas River near Spreckels.
*At 19.0 feet, Lowland agricultural areas will have minor flooding.
At 23.0 feet, A few homes near the Salinas River along the reach of the river gauge will begin to flood. River Road near Spreckels will have minor flooding.
At 24.0 feet, The lowest areas of agricultural land along the lower portions of the Salinas River will have significant flooding. River Road will have moderate flooding. Spreckels Boulevard will begin to flood.
*At 3:00 PM PST Friday the stage was 24.37 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 3:00 PM PST Friday was 24.6 feet.
- Forecast...The crest of 24.6 feet was reached at 9:15 AM PST this morning. The river is expected to gradually recede before falling below flood stage late Saturday night or Sunday.
- Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.8 feet on 02/26/1969.
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet and a depth of 2 feet will float your car. Never try to walk, swim, or drive through such swift water. If you come upon flood waters, stop, turn around and go another way.
The next statement will be issued by Friday morning at 345 AM PST.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 10AM Saturday
*Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet, with occasional waves up to 30 feet for steeply sloped beaches.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
This replaces the previous High Surf Advisory for the area.
Rest of Friday: Mostly cloudy with isolated, lingering showers. Gusty southeast winds. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Overnight: Friday evening into early Saturday morning, expect rounds of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Individual storms could have brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Then widespread light showers are likely ahead of storm number two. Lows will be mild, in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will continue to be gusty at times, south to southwest.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties including Monterey Bay in effect from 3AM Saturday until 9PM Saturday.
*Southwest winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 15 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect from 3AM Saturday until 9AM Monday.
*Minor coastal flooding expected.
*Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
*The combination of high tidal cycles, onshore winds, heavy runoff and continued rainfall will likely lead to coastal flooding in locations prone to tidal flooding.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
**WIND ADVISORY**
… for Santa Cruz County and the KION Coverage area in southern Santa Clara County in effect from 4AM Saturday until 12PM Saturday.
… and for Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect from 6AM Saturday until 2PM Saturday.
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*A fast moving cold front will bring a brief period of potentially damaging winds to the Central Coast Saturday morning with gusts to around 50 mph capable of bringing down trees and powerlines.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Saturday: Steady light to moderate rain throughout the morning into the early part of the afternoon. With lingering showers toward the evening. Expect a few more inches of rain in the coastal mountains, to an inch or less in the valleys. Southerly winds will be gusty at times. Temperatures below seasonable, mainly in the 50s.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire Central Coast and KION viewing area including Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito County. In effect from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.
*From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Light rainfall on Friday then another storm approaches on Saturday with periods of rain as a cold front passes over the region. Pre-existing saturated soils will not be able to absorb excess rainfall. Urban and small stream flooding is expected along with continued flood potential on mainstream rivers through the weekend. After a brief lull early Sunday another storm will bring more rain later Sunday into Monday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Extended: Rain chances continue through at least Wednesday, but calmer and drier weather is expected late next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 17th – 23rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña continues through winter, becomes neutral by Spring
-Area drought status: Extreme drought (D3) for southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties, Severe drought (D2) for the Salinas Valley to the bay and northern San Benito County, Moderate drought (D1) for Santa Cruz County and the coast and coastal mountains of Monterey County
