Damaging Winds & Flooding Monday
Sunday will be slightly calm, giving people time to quickly clean up and prep for the next potent storm. A wetter system takes aim on the area Monday into Tuesday, which will bring long-duration of moderate to heavy rains. This will lead to flooding of streams in the coastal mountains and of low-lying areas. Gusty, damaging winds and thunderstorms are also possible. Another system arrives late in the week. No rest for the wicked or the weary.
AIR QUALITY: Good
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire Central Coast and KION viewing area, now through Tuesday afternoon.
* Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are
possible.
*You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Sunday: Lingering showers early, then partly sunny skies in the afternoon, and breezy. Clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next system. Moderate rain will begin late Sunday night into Monday morning becoming heavier. Winds will strengthen into Monday morning
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… in effect from 8PM Sunday until 10AM Monday for all of Santa Cruz County and all of Santa Clara County
… and in effect from 8PM Sunday until 4PM Monday for all of Monterey County and all of San Benito County
* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected in the valley locations. 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph above 1000 feet. Local gusts to around 80 mph along the coast and highest peaks.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
*Due to very saturated soils, even winds on the lower end of the speed range can cause downed trees. When trees fall, this can be a threat to lives, cause power outages, and add debris to waterways which can exacerbate flooding.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
***GALE WARNING***
… in effect from 9PM Sunday until 9AM Monday for the near coastal waters of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties including Monterey Bay
*For the Gale Warning, south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 11 to 15 ft expected. (slightly less in the bay)
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Monday: Powerful, dangerous storm could bring strong damaging winds and heavy consistent rain, flooding likely. Lower elevations across the Central Coast could see 2-4 inches, while higher elevations could see 3 to 12, with the highest rainfall expected in the Santa Lucia range and the Santa Cruz Mountains. Winds could gust up to 30-50mph, with stronger gusts up to 70mph in higher terrain and along the immediate coast.
***FLOOD WARNING***
… for the Carmel River from Monday morning until further notice.
The next in a series of strong storms will move into the area tonight into Monday. Excessive rainfall will lead to increasing flooding concerns through the day on Monday as the heaviest rain is expected to fall between the hours of 4 am and 4 pm Monday.
*Moderate flooding is forecast.
* IMPACTS...At 7.5 feet, Monitor Stage. Water levels are roughly 1 foot below primary breakout locations near Camp Steffani, Paso Hondo, and Dampierre Park.
At 8.5 feet, Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to flooding.
At 10.0 feet, South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes inundated and impassable. Many low lying homes threatened along the entire Carmel River. Low lying homes near Camp Steffani
experience substantial flooding and homes near Schulte Road in danger of flooding. Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are in danger of flooding.
At 11.0 feet, Hacienda Carmel residential development levee is threatened. Moderate flooding of golf courses and low lying homes along the entire Carmel River. Homes in the Carmel Lagoon area begin to experience moderate flooding.
At 12.0 feet, Widespread flood damage to low lying homes along the entire Carmel River. Levees protecting homes near Mission Fields are in danger of breaching. Homes near the Carmel Lagoon area begin to have substantial flooding.
- At 11:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 6.1 feet. The stage is expected to lower overnight Sunday into Monday before rapidly rising on Monday.
- Forecast...The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio is forecast to rise above Monitor Stage of 7.5 ft at 10 am Monday before peaking at around 12.1 ft at 6 pm Monday. The river will fall below flood stage on Tuesday afternoon then fall below monitor stage Tuesday night.
- Flood stage is 8.5 feet.
Extended: Moderate rain & wind linger into Sunday, then a brief break before a wet system with moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds moves in Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday looks nice, so there’s that. Then, Thursday it rains again.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 15th – 21st calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña continues through winter, becomes neutral by Spring
-Area drought status: “Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”
