UC Berkeley poll finds majority support for tax on billionaires

By CBS Bay Area

Inside the social science building at UC Berkeley, Professor Eric Schickler holds the key to understanding the potential success of a ballot measure aimed at taxing California’s billionaires. 

With months to go before the midterm election, Schickler has analyzed a newly released campus poll that reveals promising signs for proponents of the proposed tax.

“A lot of voters have heard about this, about 60 percent have heard of it, which is pretty high this early in the campaign,” shared Schickler.

The poll indicates that approximately 52 percent of voters are in favor of the measure, while 31 percent are against, leaving the rest undecided.

The initiative proposes a one-time 5 percent tax on the net worth of California billionaires. The funds would be allocated to healthcare and social programs, serving as a response to potential federal Medicaid cuts.

However, Brandon Castillo from BCFS Consulting highlights the financial challenges facing the initiative. 

“So, what happens is it becomes a competitive market. Campaigns pay higher amounts per signature so that they can get priority or what we call ‘on top of the stack’ so that they are one of the first signatures that the signature gatherers appeal to because they are paying more,” he explained.

Castillo notes that billionaires have already adopted this strategy, spending millions on at least three counter-initiatives. One of these, the Transparency Act of 2026, proposes a voter-approved limit on all new special taxes, which could effectively nullify the billionaire tax. All these ballot measures are competing to gather an estimated 1.4 million certified signatures.

“It’s a pretty daunting task. Even the most well-connected, grassroots organizations have a really hard time collecting signatures on a volunteer basis,” Castillo said.

The discussion surrounding the billionaire tax is still in its early stages, but it is gaining traction. 

Schickler points out that this could create a conundrum for the crowded gubernatorial race.

“Especially ahead of the primary, risks alienating a lot of voters they need to get to the top two. On the other hand, clearly this is not very popular with extremely wealthy individuals who help fund campaigns.”

For now, the focus remains on qualifying for the ballot.