California governor’s race simulator shows 2 Republicans likely advancing through primary
By Steve Large
With so many candidates and no clear frontrunner in California’s 2026 governor’s race, two Republicans are now leading in the polls in this heavily Democratic state, raising the question: Could the primary election lead to a Republican-versus-Republican runoff?
Now, there is a new tool to simulate just how likely that could be.
It’s Paul Mitchell’s political simulation creation. The Democrat data expert, who also helped draw Proposition 50 congressional redistricting lines, launched TWINS, a top-two primary simulator showing the chance of any candidate combination winning the governor’s race primary.
The tool shows the likelihood of a Republican versus Republican runoff is 12% as of this story.
“I mean, if you ask any of the gubernatorial candidates, they’ll tell you, a lot of their supporters come to them and say, ‘Oh my gosh, can two Republicans make the runoff?’ ” Mitchell said. “It’s kind of the biggest parlor game in Sacramento right now, is people predicting what’s going happen.”
Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said a Republican-only runoff would likely not end well for his party.
“My caution to Republicans though on that is we should then expect that governor to be immediately recalled,” Stutzman said. “Democrats who are still a 2-1 majority. Most will say this is a fluke. Trump’s still president. We need to resist him, and I think you’d see a recall that would be very similar to the Prop. 50.”
Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton are the two leading Republicans in the race for now, with the field of nine Democrats fracturing their own support.
“And they’re all splitting up that pie so finely that their polling numbers are looking like they’re maybe not going to make the runoff,” Mitchell said.
This election cycle simulator is giving a new glimpse into the race for governor.
March 6 is the next big day in this race. That’s the deadline for candidates to add or drop their names from the ballot.
