San Rafael looks at options for how to protect Canal District from flooding

By John Ramos

On Jan. 3rd, low-lying areas of Marin County were hit with massive flooding from an unexpectedly high king tide.  

Some say it is a preview of what will become common as sea levels rise. And the city of San Rafael isn’t waiting for it to become a reality to try and protect its most vulnerable neighborhood. 

It wasn’t even raining when the sea rose up and inundated Marty Komitopoulos’s neighborhood.

“Canal Street, right where I am, was full of water and it was just rushing mad,” she said. “That happened that one time before, in 2003. This was bigger than a king tide. Because we’ve had king tides before, and they come up pretty high.  But this was a gigantic king tide!”

The tide was 6 inches higher than expected, and for San Rafael, it was exactly the reason they were asking for a new study, not about the potential for flooding, but about what to do to prevent it.

“We tried to pivot and focus and look a little bit more into how we could respond. How can we reduce the flood risk?” said Kate Hagemann, San Rafael’s climate adaptation planner.

They focused on the Canal District, the city’s lowest-lying area. There, the land has been sinking for years, from a few inches to several feet. So, with sea level rise, the water is getting higher while the land is getting lower.  

Andy Sternad, a principal with consulting firm Waggonner & Ball/Moffatt & Nichol, presented the report, which offered three possible courses of action.

“All of them have a common thread,” said Sternad. “Which is somehow the edge near the shoreline needs to be raised throughout San Rafael. The city is sinking, parts of it are below high tide today. So, it’s a bowl shape. We need to raise the edges of the bowl.”

The first proposal, Alternative 1, is to raise all the edges of the creek, increasing the height of the banks and flood walls. That’s estimated to cost about $720 million.  

Alternative 2 is to raise the outer banks and add a gate at the end that can be closed when the tide gets too high. That would cost more, but with sea level rise projections, might only be effective until about the year 2050.  

Finally, Alternative 3 is a complete renovation of the Canal District shoreline, removing about 550 existing homes and raising the land high enough to safely redevelop on top of it.  It is projected to cost nearly $2 billion, but because of the chance to add new value to the land, it could come closest to eventually recouping some or all of the cost.

“It really would be a reimagining of the canal edge around those basin conditions. And through that reimagination, you can transform the place,” said Sternad. “There is a statistical percentage at any given year, at any given winter storm, that that edge can be overtopped in a more catastrophic way than what we’ve seen recently. So, the time to act, really, is now.”

The stakes are high. Nearly 4,000 homes and about 13,000 people are in the sunken basin. San Rafael doesn’t have the money to do it now, but they say some kind of action needs to begin to prevent a disaster like what happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.  

“Big projects like this take 15-30 years to construct in California, and we know that in 30 years’ time, the flooding will be really frequent,” said Hagemann. “So, we kind of need to start acting now so that we can be prepared in time.”

The study presents a long-term project, but Hagemann said there are things they could do now to get ready, such as updating building codes and improving the stormwater drainage system to increase the volume of pumping during flood events.  Marty thought the city needed to act, as well. But at age 86, she didn’t seem too worried about what will happen in 2050.

“I’d like to see something done. Quit thinking and start doing,” she said. “I’m hoping I don’t have to worry about that. But you never can tell. I’m planning on breaking the world’s record for age.”